College Basketball Best Bets for Today, February 8th
By Reed Wallach
Awesome start to the week with a 3-0 sweep, but boy is this Tuesday slate much more compelling from a viewing perspective and the board is more enticing from a betting standpoint too.
Some numbers have moved away from when I placed a few at open, so I recommend checking out my betstamp here for my plays in real time, but I still see four that are within range and worthy of a wager.
Enough with the chit chat, let's get to the bets.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Column Record: 52-43-3 (+7.3 units).
West Virginia (-2) vs. Iowa State
This is a great spot to back the Mountaineers to snap their seven game losing streak. Iowa State has hit a wall this season after starting 12-0, dropping six of their last nine games. As I noted in my game preview this morning, West Virginia's well equipped to hold the Cyclones sputtering offense down:
"When they are forced to play in the halfcourt, ISU can't generate any offense. Unfortunately for them, Bobby Huggins' team is top 50 in limiting transition opportunities for teams and they are a decent ball handling club.
The team will hopefully have Taz Sherman out of concussion protocol and their physicality around the rim should create enough free throw trips (second best free throw rate in Big 12 play) to outpace the Iowa State offense that struggles to break 50 points.
West Virginia has been competitive despite the losing streak while the visiting Cyclones have hit a wall this season. ShotQuality ranks the Mountaineers as a better team based on their shot profiles and I'd play them at -2 or better in a great buy low spot."
PICK: West Virginia -2
Arkansas (+2) vs. Auburn
Auburn is fantastic -- probably the second best team in the country -- winners of 19 straight, but this is the time to sell them.
The team won on a last second shot against SEC basement dweller Georgia on Saturday and now remain on the road against the streaking Razorbacks, who have won 8 straight. Arkansas is an elite defensive team that can match the Tigers inside and in transition. Since January 1st, Arkansas is 13th in overall efficiency, per barttorvik.com, while Auburn is ranked 8th.
The Hogs are rolling and they are hungry for a statement. I think they do just that against the No. 1 ranked team in the country, who may be a bit fatigued after a taxing road game this past weekend.
Love this spot to back the home dog.
PICK: Arkansas +2, Arkansas ML if it drops below 2 at +110 or better
Illinois (+6) vs. Purdue
Full disclosure: I bet Illinois +7 last night, but still like this down to +5 so I'll count +6 for the column. I'll also be putting half a unit on Illinois ML as I believe they are live for an upset win against an overrated Purdue team.
Purdue? Overrated? Yeah. They may have the best offense in the country by KenPom's standards, but they also have the 107th best defense. After the two played a double overtime thriller last month that saw Kofi Cockburn play arguably his worst game of the season against Boilermakers big Zach Eddey, I expect a stronger outing while the Illini continue to play their best ball of the season.
Purdue's defense surrenders three-point shots at a top 50 clip and Illinois has the shot makers like Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer to make them pay. Meanwhile, the Illini allow the fourth lowest three-point rate in the country, which is pivotal against the Purdue perimeter attack that is stroking three's at the third highest percentage. In the team's first meeting, Illinois shot 12-of-33 from three-point land while Purdue shot 8-of-18. The defining mark came from the free throw line, Purdue shot 26-of-32 while Illinois shot 12-of-15.
Mackey Arena is a tough place to play, but we have seen Wisconsin go in there and win as well as teams like Ohio State and Michigan cover inflated spreads. I think the Illini cover and have a chance to win this one.
Read more on this game HERE!
PICK: Illinois +6, play to +5, .5U on Illinois +210 down to +200
Michigan (-2) vs. Penn State
This line feels too short for a Michigan team that is trying to make an NCAA Tournament push and can't afford a loss to lowly Penn State.
Hunter Dickinson has scored 25 or more in three straight games as he is looking to carry the Wolverines to the field of 68 and should have another big game against an underwhelming Penn State frontcourt.
"While the Wolverines have concerns on the defensive side of the ball, Penn State's inability to get quality looks will sink them. The team is over reliant on mid-range jump shots, which they hit at a decent rate (75th in the country, per Haslemetrics), but I'm going to side with the Wolverines offense to do enough to avoid a catastrophic loss that will surely hurt their Tournament standing. Dickinson anchors a unit that is 10th in near proximity field goal percentage and top 25 in second chance conversion.
I see more avenues to scoring for the Michigan offense that is third in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play. This line has sunk too far and I'll buy the dip on a Wolverines team that is actually playing better than their record indicates."
PICK: Michigan -2