College Football Upset Picks (Old Dominion Takes Down Virginia Tech in Week 1, Parties Like it's 2018)
By Ben Heisler
I'll admit, while Week 0 in college football last week was fun, particularly watching Nebraska fall apart late vs. Northwestern in Dublin, it didn't feel like the true start to the season.
This week feels like we're ready to go.
BetSided has put out all sorts of previews for all the key games, as well as our best bets for the matchups which you can find here. With so many games in action, I've found a few on the board that have me looking for not just an underdog with the points, but a full on upset victory to boot.
Here are my three favorite moneyline upset picks for Week 1 in college football:
College Football Upset Picks
Old Dominion +210 vs. Virginia Tech
BetSided's Reed Wallach has been in my ear all week about this pick, and after editing his articles, and hearing him discuss it as one of his best bets of the week on both "The Daily Reed" as well as "Daily Betslip" on Wednesday, I'm finding myself drinking the Kool-Aid out of the same punch bowl.
As he points out in his betting preview from earlier this week, there's far more experience coming back for Old Dominion than for Virginia Tech, particularly on offense with 10 returning starters. He also points out that new ODU head coach Ricky Rahne has worked with Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry in the past, and may know a few of his tricks to prepare for.
This line opened at Tech -8.5, and has kept moving towards the Monarchs. I'll back them to take the in-state throne on Friday night.
Florida +122 vs. Utah
BetSided's Josh Yourish took the OVER from Gainesville earlier this week at 51, a sharp move with the number now at 51.5.
I think that matters because of how much oddsmakers value Florida's offensive weapons with Billy Napier now running the show. Anthony Richardson is already being talked about as a 1st round NFL Draft pick at quarterback before taking a snap in The Swamp, and despite the Utes' experience and toughness up front, the Gators will be the most well-rested they've been all season, oozing with talent and athleticism that I'm not sure Utah can handle.
It's not as if the unranked Gators knocking off No. 7 Utah would be a monumental upset, but it's still a home dog with a ton of talent matching up against a team that hasn't had an opportunity to gel throughout the season the way Utah is accustomed to.
Via College Football News' Pete Fiutak, Utah is just 2-8 in its last 10 games on the road vs. teams finishing with a winning record. I'll say it ends up 1-9 in their last 10 after Saturday night.
PICK: Florida ML +122
Southern Miss (+146) vs. Liberty
Our guy Reed also made a note of another interesting trend heading into Week 1, that home underdogs have covered at a 57% clip in opening matchups since 2012.
The line for the Golden Eagles hasn't moved to 3 as of yet, but has come down from as high as +4.5 fairly recently.
Liberty won't have former star quarterback and newly drafted Tennessee Titan Malik Willis under center anymore, and only return just over half of their offensive starters. That's not good when you consider that Southern Miss returns most of their defense from a season ago.
Offensively, they jumped on the transfer portal to add some needed help on the offensive line, and Frank Gore Jr. should break through for 1,000 yards after having to create most of the space on his own between the tackles.
Southern Mississippi has good balance now on both sides of the ball, and I see that taking over late against a Liberty team looking to put several new puzzle pieces together.
PICK: Southern Miss ML + 146
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