College Football Wagering Trends to Know for Week 2: Nick Saban is a Great Bet as Double Digit Road Favorite
By Reed Wallach
Who needs trends? You need trends? I got trends for you!
College football season was utter chaos last week, but if you checked out our trends piece from last week hopefully you made a tidy profit to build that bankroll. But a new week brings us new matchups and new situations, so let's answer some questions and see how particular teams have performed in certain spots.
Here are four trends for you for Week 2:
Nick Saban is Dominant as an ATS Road Favorite
I'm not breaking news to you, but this Nick Saban fella is pretty good at winning football games. It's not just winning, though, it's winning with margin. Saban is 21-11 as a visiting favorite of two touchdowns or more while coaching Alabama.
Catch The Early Reed from this week to hear myself and Tom Casale break this one down and see if Saban can improve to 22-11 in this spot:
Trust Pat Fitzgerald to Go UNDER the Total as a Favorite
Don't marry yourself to trends because every spot is different, but this is one where I think that a trend matches how I see a game is going to go.
Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern teams have gone under in 28 of 35 games as a home favorite. When they are double digit favorites (like they are against Duke on Saturday), they are 16-3 to the under.
My handicap of the Wildcats is that they are coming off a high scoring affair against Nebraska, who struggled on defense and also set up a shootout by onside kicking while up two scores. Fitzgerald is historically profitable as an underdog but as a favorite he typically plays closer than expectation as he is not known for coaching vertical offenses.
Fitzgerald, when he is in control of the game script, likes to set up his offense on the ground and play a methodical style. This total shot up earlier in the week from 54.5, but I still like this under through 52.5 with this trend supporting my handicap.
Is the Letdown Effect Real?
I am here to tell you that there is no truth to the fact that there is a 'letdown' after winning as an underdog.
Some say that there is no way a team can get up once again after pulling an upset, but there is no truth to that at all. You'd be down money either way over a five year sample size.
Since the 2017 season, if you bet on a team after they won outright as an underdog, you'd have gone 397-407-15. While that's below .500, the other side would also be down assuming you pay -110 for each bet.
While every situation is different, there is no tried and true formula for backing or fading a team off of pulling an upset.
Teams that won as an underdog last week: Florida, Old Dominion, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio, North Carolina (weird one I wouldn't count this)
Trust Power 5 Teams as Road Favorites?
There's no evidence to suggest that a P5 team heading on the road to face a Group of 5 team is a good bet to cover. ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, PAC-12 and SEC teams are 62-68-4 over the last 10 years (including last week) against the spread when traveling to take on teams from the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West or Sun Belt conferences.
While the name brand may lead you to make a bet, think again as it is not some layup when betting ATS.
Power 5 teams on the road this week as favorites against Group of 5 Schools: North Carolina, Maryland, Oregon State,