College Football Best Bets Today: Purdue, West Virginia Live Underdogs to Start Week 1 Thursday?
By Reed Wallach
We have a treat for the official start of college football season.
Week 1 has games starting Thursday night and going through Monday evening to welcome in the new season. Thursday's slate is particularly interesting with a Big Ten opener between Penn State and Purdue as well as the restart of the Backyard Brawl between West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
Need some winners to get the College Football season? Make sure to check out The Early Reed for all Week 1 action, but you can also keep reading for plays on Thursday!
College Football Best Bets for Week 1
Ball State vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
This number is massive and I wonder just how much we'll see from the Vols' first team on Thursday night. If they wanted to, they can cover this spread with ease.
Hooker is generating some dark horse Heisman Trophy buzz with the offense he plays in and his dual threat ability, and I expect this team to flirt with 30-40 points in any given matchup. They averaged 2.92 points per drive last season, top 20 in the country.
Ball State is two years removed from a MAC Championship and are replacing long time quarterback Drew Plitt and receiver Justin Hall. There are plenty of holes in this roster that is going to need time to gel before they fight in the competitive MAC. For reference, the only Power 5 team it played last year was at Penn State and it lost 44-13 as 22-point underdogs.
The Cardinals won't be able to stop the Vols offense, but this total is too high. I show a number edge on Tennessee, but with a big rematch at Pittsburgh in Week 2, I'm concerned they shut it down early.
The Vols should win big, but the under is the best bet as I'm not sure this rebuilding Ball State team is getting to double digits.
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick
Pitt had a magical season in 2021 behind a high octane offense, winning the ACC Championship and the Peach Bowl. However, Narduzzi appears to be going back to his roots, relying on a physical defense and a ground game to outlast his opponents.
That's a bit concerning for me and I don't envision Narduzzi is going to find the success he had last season. By focusing on the running game he is going to run into a similar issue he had prior to the Kenny Pickett led team last season, in which he struggled to pull away from teams he was expected to beat, evident in his 12-18-2 ATS mark as a home favorite.
Meanwhile, West Virginia enters this season with question marks of its own is and expected to be considerably worse than the Pitt. The Mountaineers have a win total of 5.5 while the Panthers have a lofty number of 8.5. However, this matchup fits the mold of a spot where Narduzzi struggles.
I also think there is some upside to the Mountaineers with talented yet often injured quarterback Daniels coming from Georgia by way of USC. If Daniels and Harrell catch lightning in a bottle and get the passing game going against a stout Pitt defense, this game has all the makings of a barn burner, especially with the hosts being shallow on vertical threats.
I think there's a bit too much credit going towards Pitt in Week 1 considering this is a completely different roster from last season, leading me towards the visitors as underdogs.
Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick
This should be a strong Purdue team based on preseason expectations. The team has a win total of 7.5, but can the team make up for the loss of do-it-all receiver David Bell (93 catches, 1,286 yards last season)? The Boilermakers bring back Aidan O'Connell under center, who passed for 3,712 yards last season, but there are questions as to who he is passing and handing it off to.
Penn State returns quarterback Sean Clifford, who was banged up for most of the second half of the season, but the team must also replace an NFL receiver in Jahan Dotson. So while both offenses have returning quarterbacks, there are question marks.
The Nittany Lions should still have a stout defense under first year coordinator Manny Diaz with NFL caliber prospects back there like Joey Porter Jr, but I'm concerned about laying it with the visitors given this has been a strong spot for home underdogs.
Since 2012, Week 1 home underdogs in conference play are 19-11-2, good for a 63% hit rate. This looks like a dog or pass spot with some question marks on both teams and a team that thrives at home in a great situation.