Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 25 (Back Castillo, Cole and Brown)
After last Friday's bloodbath, I'm still here, taking my lumps and while taking one step forward and two back.
As I've always said, this is a long-term effort, understanding there'll be good days and bad as betting on baseball is not always linear in it's results.
Let's get into Tuesday's slate with an eye on the highly anticipated matchup between the New york Yankees and New York Mets in the Subway Series.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Pick
After jumping out to a 10-game lead in the American League West, the Seattle Mariners have hit a speed bump, losing five of their last six, including two of three in Miami and the first game in Tampa and seeing their lead dip to 5.5 games in a week.
Despite being a game under .500 I have the Rays as the team most likely to regress through this point in the 2024 season.
Seattle's offense is always an iffy bet, but this is a pitching mismatch, with Luis Castillo and his 10 quality starts vs. Zack Littell,
PICK: Mariners Moneyline -125
New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction and Pick
One piece of good news for me and this endeavor is the return of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees rotation. Last season Cole threw 24 quality starts in 33 outings and became a Quality Start All-Star in the process.
In his first effort this season, Cole lasted only four innings and 62 pitches against the Orioles back on June 19.
The Yankees are facing David Peterson of the Mets, who has two quality starts in four total starts in 2024.
I'm not sure that Cole is ready to be stretched out to 95 pitches in what will be just his second start, so I'll take the Yankees in the first 5 in this one, simply believing Cole is the better pitcher and the Yankees are the better team.
PICK: Yankees First 5 Moneyline -140
Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Prediction and Pick
Astros pitcher Hunter Brown continues to look more and more like the key cog of the Astros rotation like we expected.
Brown struggled through his first 9 appearances (8 starts) of the year with a 1-4 record and 7.71 ERA.
Since then, he's thrown six consecutive quality starts and allowed just seven earned runs in 37 innings (1.70 ERA).
The Rockies are using Austin Gomber who has five quality starts in 14 outings on the season and contrary to popular belief he hasn't been terrible.
Gomber faced the Astros in Mexico City back on April 28 and gave up 6 hits and 4 runs in seven innings, but three of those hits were homers in the thin air.
After playing with their food for the first 75 games, the Astros suddenly caught fire and swept the Orioles over the weekend, putting up 27 runs in three games, while limiting the Birds to 2 runs combined in the final two contests.
The Astros bullpen concerns me, but the high leverage arms have had two days of rest and the Rockies bullpen is even worse.
PICK: Astros Run Line -1.5 -125
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.