Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 24 (Back Skubal, Valdez, King)
My brief warm-ish streak is over after a 1-2-1 day on Friday, but there are still intriguing matchups with six days to go in the regular season including multiple games with playoff positions or seeding on the line.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction and Pick
The Tigers are 20-8 since August 22 and currently own an American League Wild Card spot against all odds.
The even better news is they have Tarik Skubal on the mound and while Skubal has been good everywhere racking up 21 quality starts, he's been especially good at home where he is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA.
Ryan Pepiot hasn't been bad on the road (5-3, 3.47 ERA), but he's no match for Skubal and the Tigers, who are 20-10 and average 5.41 runs per game when he starts.
The money line is juicy at -185, so I'm going with the run line at plus money in this one.
PICK: Tigers Run Line -1.5 +125
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction and Pick
The Mariners won last night and will live to see another day as a contender in Houston. As a side note, the Mariners now have won the season series and if the regular season ends in a tie they would have the tiebreaker over the Astros.
First things first though, the Mariners have to win tonight with Logan Gilbert on the mound against Framber Valdez.
Gilbert has 22 quality starts in 31 outings, but the poor Mariner offense has led them to have a losing record (14-17) and average just 3.53 runs in Gilbert starts.
I've been a big questioner of Valdez's mental toughness, as he loses concentration easily when the smallest things go against him, but he has shoved it this season, with 17 quality starts in 27 outings.
Valdez is particularly sharp at home, going 8-2 with a 2.39 ERA at Minute Maid Park and the Astros are 18-9 and averaging 4.56 runs per game with Framber pitching.
The Astros will be without Yordan Alvarez, which is huge and if they lose tonight things could get interesting in the American League West.
PICK: Astros Money Line -134
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Don't look now, but the Padres are just three games back of the Dodgers and have a three-game series in Los Angeles starting tonight, with Michael King facing Landon Knack.
King has 14 quality starts in 29 starts on the season, while Knack has just two in 11 starts for the Dodgers.
The Padres are 17-12 with King starting and he has been particularly good on the road, going 8-4 with a 2.80 ERA.
The Dodgers are 4-7 in Knack starts, but he hasn't been bad at home, registering a 3.00 ERA at Dodger Stadium.
I like the Padres in game one of this series and feel like I'm getting a bargain at this number.
PICK: Padres Money Line -101
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.