Fade the Trend and Take the Under in Georgia vs. Alabama

The day is finally here. The College Football National Championship between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs is set to take place tonight.

Before I dive into my favorite pick for the night, let's take a look at the latest odds for the game, courtesy of WynnBET.

Georgia vs. Alabama Odds and Total

Spread:

• Georgia -2.5 (-115)
• Alabama +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

• Georgia -140
• Alabama +115

Total:

• 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bet on the UNDER in Tonight's National Championship Game

While everyone is arguing which side is the bet to make tonight, (the majority of bettors are on Alabama), I'm looking at the total instead. In my opinion, the UNDER 52.5 presents the best value of all available bets on the board.

The SEC Championship game between these two teams was an absolute blowout, results in 65 total points being scored. At face value, that may make you think that the OVER 52.5 tonight is the bet to make, but I think the final score was a huge outlier and we're going to see a much different result tonight.

Georgia's Defense is Playing at a Historic Level

Even though they allowed 41 points in the SEC Championship Game, the Georgia defense still has historic numbers heading into tonight's game. It's allowed only an average of 9.8 points per game this season, six fewer points per game than the next best defense.

It's been 10 full years since another team has allowed single-digit points per game. You have to go back to the 2011-2012 Alabama Crimson Tide to find the last defense that allowed fewer than 10 points a game.

Furthermore, the Alabama offense is having a down year, comparatively speaking. They're averaging 40.9 points per game, which is the fewest the Crimson Tide have averaged since the 2016-17 season when they averaged 39.4.

This is an offense that could only put up 20 points against LSU, 24 against Auburn, and 27 against Cincinnati in the semifinal. I refuse to believe they're going to hang another 40-burger on this Georgia defense.

Fade the OVER Trend in the National Championship Game

As Ben Heisler pointed out in his wild wagering trends article, the OVER has hit in six straight national championship games since the UNDER hit in the first edition of the College Football Playoff Finals. That trends not going to last forever, and I'm going to fade it tonight.

The UNDER went 8-6 in Georgia's games this season, and 8-5-1 in Alabama's.

I admit that betting on the UNDER in a national championship game isn't exactly the most exciting bet to cheer for, but if you want to make money, I think it's the strongest bet to make.