Betsided

How Have Double Digit Underdogs Fared in the Final Week of the NFL Regular Season?

By Ben Heisler

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills opened as 17-point favorites this week vs. the New York Jets at home.
Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills opened as 17-point favorites this week vs. the New York Jets at home. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK
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At the end of December, we wrote about the success of massive favorites in the NFL this season; with 13-point favorites or greater going 9-2-0 straight up, but only 6-4-1 vs. the spread.

Now in the final week of the NFL regular season, four more teams are underdogs of 10-points or higher; with three of them being the home team.

  • Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (+10)
  • Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+15)
  • Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (+10)
  • New York Jets (+16.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

All four of these favorites have AFC playoff seeding on the line; hence the hefty odds that oddsmakers are placing on them.

While the motivation is obviously in play, does that also add up to teams' ability to cover the number?

Want more NFL regular season trends?

Check out Reed Wallach's breakdown of how home teams dominated vs. the spread in Week 17

Should Bettors Back Big Underdogs in the Last Week of the NFL Regular Season?

According to BETIQ, going all the way back to 1985, 10-point underdogs or greater are just 12-73 straight-up to win during the final week of the regular season; notching a victory just 14.1% of the time.

However, against the spread, it's almost dead-even. Double digit dogs have gone 41-42-2 ATS in the last week of the season; covering 49.4% of their games played.

The odds this week reflect this. While it may be tempting to lay the wood and bet any of these teams minus the points, the better opportunity would be to bet all four favorites straight-up as a four-team parlay with odds of -147. After all, 10-point favorites or higher have won straight up 85.9% of the time.

Kansas City gets the Week 18 action started on Saturday at 4:30 pm ET at Denver.

For what it's worth, the UNDER has the slight edge in games featuring underdogs of 10-points or more, going 44-39-2 ATS; hitting at a 52.9% clip.

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