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Here’s How Massive Favorites Have Fared in the NFL This Season

By Ben Heisler

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and QB Tom Brady are one of four teams this week as a 13-point favorite or more.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and QB Tom Brady are one of four teams this week as a 13-point favorite or more. / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
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Huge favorites late in the season against teams with nothing to play for can feel like a no-brainer bet, but how often do they actually cover the massive numbers oddsmakers put in front of them?

Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers, despite several players in the COVID protocol, closed as a 13-point road favorite against the Houston Texans. They ended up losing outright 41-29.

The 13-point spread for L.A. was the highest spread of the week in the NFL; reminding bettors that nothing is ever a no-brainer, despite a late sharp move in the Chargers' direction late.

This week, four teams opened as 13-point favorites or higher at WynnBET Sportsbook:

So far during the 2021 NFL season, via Stathead, favorites of 13 points or more at the closing number have gone 9-2 straight up, but just 6-4-1 against the spread.

Our Reed Wallach also took a look at how four games of 13-point favorites or higher fared in previous Week 17's. Going back to 2018, they went 2-2 ATS on that slate of games.

So how can bettors decide on which of the four games they should back the heavy favorite, the big dog, or perhaps neither?

Should Bettors Trust the Four Big Favorites in Week 17?

One area to check out is determining how many of those large favorites are at home. While road teams have actually had the upper hand this season in covering the spread (131-104-2), large favorites with a winning record at home have covered 56% of the of the time since 2003, according to Action Labs.

However, this week may be the week to avoid laying the wood with all four teams. Of all four teams, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a winning record vs. the spread at home, going 5-2-0 this year. As a favorite on the road, they're just 3-5-0 ATS.

Here are the other team's records ATS as a home favorite in 2021:

  • Buffalo Bills: 3-3-1
  • New England Patriots: 3-3-0
  • San Francisco 49ers: 2-4-0

If I had to choose one of these four games to bet, I'll side with the Bills to cover the two touchdowns against the Falcons. Buffalo owns the league's best margin of victory; winning by an average of 10.9 points per game and are +3.6 in ATS +/- this year via TeamRankings. Therefore, if they're going to win, they're most likely to cover a large number in the process.

Meanwhile, in their last four losses, Atlanta has lost by an average of 24 points in each contest.

One team wins big, the other loses even bigger. I'll back Buffalo to cover the two touchdowns.

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