'It’s a Trap:' Which Week 1 NFL Odds are Most Deceiving?

Every week, there are a few lines on the NFL slate that can be a bit deceiving for casual and newer bettors. 

A perfect example came in Thursday night’s season opener between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys, as the line moved all the way to the Bucs -9.5 at WynnBET. Thursday’s affair ended up being a close matchup; with the Bucs sneaking out of Raymond James Stadium with a 31-29 victory. 

Buccaneers bettors may have thought that Tampa deserved to be such a heavy favorite, but with a ton of money coming in on the Bucs, oddsmakers continued to move the line.

Taking the Bucs at -9.5 was a major ask, even if they are the superior team to Dallas. In our "Ask the Oddsmakers" series, WynnBET senior lead trader Alan Berg said the number one mistake bettors make is taking a team, rather than the number.

With that said, there are a few potential "trap" lines to be aware of before betting in Week 1.

San Francisco 49ers (-9) vs. Detroit Lions | TOTAL: 45

This game is looking exactly like the Bucs-Cowboys matchup on Thursday. 

San Francisco opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has steadily moved up to -9.0, signaling that most of the action is on the 49ers. 

The 49ers are a better team than Detroit by a lot, but the Lions are at home and nine points is nothing to sneeze at. I took the 49ers in BetSided’s Survivor Picks, but I’m far less confident that they win by double-digits on the road. 

Bettors may think that the 49ers are going to immediately return to their 2019 form, but if the line continues to move in favor of San Francisco, it may be worth taking the Lions to cover at home. 

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs | TOTAL: 54.5

This Week 1 matchup is a rematch of last season’s AFC divisional round in the playoffs, where Kansas City squeaked by with a 22-17 win after losing Patrick Mahomes to a concussion. 

Kansas City is at home in Week 1, and it opened as nearly a touchdown favorite before the line crept all the way down to 5.5. 

This could be a product of multiple things. One, the Chiefs were just 4-5 against the spread as a home favorite last season. Secondly, the Browns are much improved on defense in 2021, and appear to be amongst the leading contenders to dethrone Kansas City in the AFC. WynnBET recently moved the Browns as the favorite over the Ravens to win the AFC North.

Still, the Chiefs won by an average of 11.6 points in their seven home wins in 2020, and they only had two games where they won by less than six. 

The public seems to be confident in the Browns to cover the spread, but it may be time to hop back on Kansas City now that the line has moved under a touchdown.

Interested in betting on these matchups? Get in the action on the WynnBET app.