It’s a Trap: Which Week 5 College Football Odds are Most Deceiving?

Last week’s College Football trap lines article went 2-1, so let’s keep it rolling with another winning week. 

Of course, trap lines are subjective, but I’m trying to look at these lines from afar, dig in to the numbers and matchup data and look where my opinion may have changed from when I first thought. 

Without further ado, here are this week’s three trap lines that I’m pouncing on, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Wisconsin (-125) vs. Michigan

Many people watched Wisconsin lose badly to Notre Dame on a neutral field, sending the Badgers to 1-2 on the season. So, why are they favored against No. 14 Michigan? 

Well, the Wolverines are running a bit too well right now. 

The team beat a banged up Washington team at home and held on to beat a mediocre Rutgers squad in unimpressive fashion as massive favorites. Besides that, they feasted on MAC competition. 

Ultimately, this Michigan team hasn’t been challenged this yet and have been over reliant on the run especially after star wide receiver Ronnie Bell went down in Week 1. Unfortunately for them, Wisconsin is allowing about one yard per carry this season and is the best in the country at limiting explosive plays. 

Yes, the Wisconsin offense hasn’t been pretty, but they are going to force Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara to beat them, which I can’t confidently say he will. 

I’d play the Badgers up to -130 instead of the spread in what I expect to be a rock fight in Madison. Wisconsin wins ugly with regularity, Michigan might not be able to.

Cincinnati (-125) vs. Notre Dame

I wrote extensively about this game and why now is the time to get in on Cincinnati futures to win the National Championship, but I can see why Notre Dame is attractive in this spot given they will be in front of the home crowd and have been battle tested over the first month of the season. 

However, I’m going the other way in that this Cincy team is entering the biggest game in school history and has an extra week to prepare. With injuries to starting quarterback Jack Coan (sprained ankle, but likely to suit up on Saturday) to the Fightin’ Irish and a non-existent offensive line, I see the Bearcats as an incredibly cheap road favorite.

Boston College (+15) vs. Clemson 

Oh yes, we’re going back to the well. There’s no way Clemson won’t get right against Boston College, who is onto their backup quarterback, right? 

I’m here to tell you I’m not counting on it. 

Clemson has shown nothing to warrant being a favorite of more than two touchdowns against a formidable ACC foe. While Phil Jurkovec is indeed out for the year, Dennis Grosel has looked solid so far and is a mobile quarterback that can create some chaos on the field for the Eagles.

The Tigers offense is a mess, and while the defense is one of the best in the country still, injuries are starting to mount on that side of the ball. Two of their starting defensive tackles are out and linebacker James Skalski left the North Carolina State game with an injury last week.

I like BC to keep this competitive, and yes, they can win. Clemson might be finished and I'm not sure the market is factoring in the dreaded 'quit' factor. 

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