Key Players to Watch in Thursday's March Madness Action (Chet Holmgren, Collin Gillespie, Benedict Mathurin)
By Reed Wallach
Thursday's Sweet 16 is full of intrigue on Thursday night, likely the more competitive of the two nights of games.
Future NBA stars like Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren and Benedict Mathurin take the stage as they try to send their respective teams to the Elite 8 this weekend while college basketball legends like Collin Gillespie look to keep their careers alive with one last NCAA Tournament run.
Let's focus on the key plays that will help determine the game for Thursday's Sweet 16.
Gonzaga (-9.5) vs. Arkansas
Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
Holmgren is the key to Gonzaga's success. Yes, Andrew Nembhard is the point guard and Drew Timme is off a monster second half in the come from behind win over Memphis in the second round, but it will be the future top five pick that is the key to the Bulldogs victory.
Holmgren is the team's rim protector that has the third best at the rim field goal percentage allowed in the country and will be massive againstan Arkansas team that is going to look to finish inside. The team is a poor 3-point shooting team and will need to generate points at the rim in order to keep up with the Zags vaunted offense.
At seven feet tall, Holmgren is a dangerous 3-point shooter that opens the paint up for Timme around the rim. He is averaging 14 points and nearly 10 rebounds on 60/39/73 shooting splits.
JD Notae, Arkansas
Notae has had a poor start to the NCAA Tournament, shooting below 30% from the field and turning the ball over eight times, but there is no denying that he is capable of having a super human performance against the No. 1 seed Bulldogs.
Notae averaged over 18 points per game this season, but shot a career worst 30% from beyond the arc. In order to stay within shouting distance of the Bulldogs, the Razorbacks are 9.5-point underdogs at WynnBET Sportsbook, Notae is going to have to stay out of foul trouble (nine fouls in two games) and get hot from the field.
Arkansas vs. Gonzaga game preview and best bets.
Villanova vs. Michigan
Collin Gillespie, Villanova
The veteran guard is the straw that stirs the drink for the No. 2 seed in the South Region, averaging 17 points and four assists per game through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Gillespie is going to have a size advantage on either Davante' Jones or Eli Brooks and will be able to operate out of the post, where he is so lethal. He is flanked by a lineup of dead eye shooters, four shoot north of 34% in addition to Gillespie, who shoots a team high 41% from beyond the arc.
Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
Dickinson has been on a roll this Tournament, averaging 24 points on 69% field goal percentage, and will need to play in a similar fashion in order for Michigan to advance to the Elite 8.
Villanova may not have a big man that matches the 7'1" Dickinson, meaning he may be in line for a big game, but will have to do so from the perimeter. Nova's matchup zone defense forces teams to shoot the 22nd furthest shots in the country, according to Haslemetrics. However, he is shooting 33% from deep this season.
Read: Michigan vs. Villanova game preview!
Texas Tech vs. Duke
Bryson Williams, Texas Tech
Texas Tech doesn't necessarily have a center, but Williams qualifies for this exercise. At 6'8", Williams will likely be matched up with Duke big man Mark Williams, who is one of the best rim protectors in the country.
Texas Tech's Williams is a capable floor spacer, shooting over 49% from 3 on more than two attempts per game, and will be important for the Red Raiders to clear Duke's shot blocker out of the paint.
The Blue Devils don't turn their opponents over at all, 309th in the country in turnover rate and do a good job of shutting off the perimeter to opponents, willing to let foes drive on them and have their big man rotate over and swat shots away (top 25 in block rate as a team). However, if Williams is able to garner respect on the perimeter, the pain may open for a TTU offense that is 22nd in two-point percentage.
Wendell Moore, Duke
If the offensive game plan for Duke is to have Paolo Banchero win in isolation situations, the team is going to lose by double digits. The key to beating this Texas Tech "no-middle" defense is to swing the ball around the perimeter and make their aggressive ball side defense pay.
Enter: Wendell Moore. Moore leads the team in assist rate (22.8%) for a Blue Devils offense that is going to need to get hot from 3 off the catch to win this one. The team is full of talent and shoots the 3 at a top 30 percentage in the country, but takes them at the 209th highest rate. The Red Raiders' defense is built to give up the 3-point shot, 14th highest rate in the nation, but Duke needs to be wiling to let it fly.
Moore is going to need to be the navigator of this offense and find the likes of Jeremy Roach and AJ Griffin beyond the arc, but also hit a few of his own, he is shooting 41% from distance this season.
Who is advancing to the Elite 8? Find out in our Duke vs. Texas Tech game preview!
Arizona vs. Houston
Kerr Kriisa, Arizona
Kriisa found his way on the floor despite a balky ankle that he injured in the Pac-12 Tournament. While he didn't shoot well (1-of-10 from 3), he did play 27 of the 45 minutes and moved pretty well. The hope is that the Arizona point guard is capable of running the offense against a Houston defense that is top 30 in turnover rate this season.
Kriisa is a floor spacer and the team leader in assist rate, two keys to Arizona knocking off the underseeded Cougars. Houston allows a ton of 3's but plays at a snail's pace. If this is going to be a battle of half court execution, Kriisa is going to be relied upon to set the table for the explosive wings of Arizona to get clean looks.
The Wildcats may opt to focus on defensive rebounding, giving them a smaller backcourt, which will put more pressure on the likes of Kriisa to find open teammates.
Fabian White, Houston
Kelvin Sampson's team is incredibly balanced, but my eyes will be on the fifth year senior White, who has emerged as a pick-and-pop threat this season, hitting 38% of his 3-point tries on 127 attempts.
If he is able to drag the Arizona big men out of the perimeter, that will open up shots at the rim for a Cougars offense that falls through some dry spells sometimes. It will also make life easier to rebound, which is the source of much of their offense. Houston is third in the country in offensive rebounding rate and White is a key reason why. If Arizona is as sloppy on the defensive glass as they were against TCU, the Horned Frogs grabbed 20 and are a worse version of Houston, the Wildcats are going home.
For more Arizona vs. Houston coverage, check out our game preview!
Build your winning Second Chance March Madness Bracket with the BetSided team!