Lance McCullers vs. Carlos Rodón: Are White Sox Starting the Wrong Guy for ALDS Game 4?

A playoff elimination game isn't traditionally when teams tend to roll the dice, but 76-year old White Sox manager Tony La Russa may be taking an unnecessary gamble ahead of Game 4 in Chicago this afternoon at 1:07 pm local time (CT).

With Game 4 rained out Monday, the White Sox had the option to put their ace on the mound in Lance Lynn on regular rest. Instead, La Russa announced that he start left-hander Carlos Rodón in his first action of the series and first start since September 29th.

“I think he has earned it and, especially, since he says he thinks he’s gonna have more of that velocity back" La Russa told FOX Sports' Tom Verducci. 

"I think it’s an easy call for us.”

Chicago stayed alive in Game 3 Sunday with a 12-6 win over Houston in Game 3, Today, they enter their second straight elimination game as slight favorites at home at -115 odds on the moneyline (bet $115 to win $100) at WynnBET Sportsbook, and are -1.5 on the run line with positive odds of +170. The Astros are +105 underdogs (bet $100 to win $105), and are +1.5 (-190) via the run line.

The total on Game 4 has hovered right at 8.5 runs, with both the over and under at -110 odds.

Is Starting Rodón Over Lynn the Right Decision?

When Rodón has been healthy, he's been amongst the best pitchers in baseball this season. When healthy, he throws four pitches with nasty movement and generates plenty of swing-and-miss. But his recent velocity, in particular, has been nowhere close to where it was in the first half of the season.

During his no-hitter back in April, Rodon was sitting in the mid-90's all game, topping out just under 100 mph.

Now, it's been nowhere near his earlier levels, topping out in the low 90s with his 4-seam fastball.

While the decision to not start Lynn in Game 4 adds up based on the results of Game 1 in Houston, it's also a fair argument to suggest he's the right play over the unknown of Rodón in Game 4.

In Game 1, Lynn gave up five earned runs in Chicago's 6-1 loss. Per Dallas Morning News MLB writer Evan Grant, Lynn is 0-6 on the road vs. the Astros with a 7.27 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in 34.2 innings in Houston. At home, he's 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA.

This season, Lynn was dominant in Chicago, pitching to a 2.56 ERA in 17 starts with a WHIP of 0.979 while averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

La Russa also mentioned that should Rodon get into early trouble, that Lynn would be an available option out of the bullpen for Game 4. Assuming both pitchers get into the game and Chicago hangs on, that would put Lucas Giolito in line to start Game 5 back in Houston where he went 4.1 IP, giving up 4 ER while walking five.

For even more betting analysis on today's game, check out our Game 4 pick from Peter Dewey, along with 3 Bold Betting Predictions from Iain MacMillan.

Backing the White Sox to stay alive or the Astros to finish the series? Make your pick today at WynnBET!

WynnBET Promo: Bet $1, Win $100 if any NFL or college football team scores. Claim your offer now.