March Madness Second Chance Bracket Picks (Rock Chalk Jayhawk - Kansas Emerges As the Best Value)
By Joe Summers
Unless you're some kind of Oracle straight out of the Matrix, your bracket is probably busted. Maybe you had Kentucky making the Final Four or liked Iowa to come out of the Midwest Region. Perhaps you're like me and took on a chance on a longshot like Virginia Tech only for it to immediately blow up in your face.
Whatever your situation, you probably need a redo. Luckily, it's time for a second-chance bracket!
Thanks to the odds from our friends at WynnBET, we can run through the remaining games and hope we learn from our mistakes to nail some picks this time around:
Who is the BetSided team putting in their Final Four and beyond? We put our heads together to create the ultimate Second Chance Bracket!
West Region
No. 4 Arkansas (+350) vs No. 1 Gonzaga (-450)
Neither team has been particularly impressive in the first two rounds. Arkansas barely held on to beat New Mexico State and Vermont while Gonzaga pulled away late against Georgia State before overcoming a double-digit deficit to topple Memphis. Both teams are winless against the spread and in need of a complete performance to feel good about their chances to win it all.
I expect that complete performance to come from Gonzaga. Their comeback against Memphis should revitalize the Bulldogs. They're the best team in the country and Arkansas is too dependent on J.D. Notae, who is admittedly fantastic. But Gonzaga is heavy favorites for a reason. I'm sticking with chalk here.
Pick: Gonzaga Advances
No. 3 Texas Tech (-115) vs No. 2 Duke (-105)
Texas Tech has the best defense in the country while Duke ranks in the 1st percentile in defensive rating over their last five games. The Red Raiders aren't a great offensive team, but they're getting hot from deep at the right time. With a 94th-percentile ranking in three-point shooting over their last five, Texas Tech can take advantage of this leaky Blue Devils' defense.
The Red Raiders end Coach K's career in the Sweet 16, but it'll be a close one.
Pick: Texas Tech Advances
No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 3 Texas Tech
Texas Tech can absolutely upset the Bulldogs, but I think their offensive struggles will be their downfall. I wrote before the tournament that Gonzaga had the largest gap in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric between No. 1 and No. 2 (Arizona) in the history of his database, and they're still the best team in the country.
I won't be scared away by their lackluster performances in the first two rounds. The comeback against Memphis will be a turning point and the Bulldogs will ride that momentum to the Final Four.
Pick: No. 1 Gonzaga Wins West Region
East Region
No. 8 North Carolina (+125) vs No. 4 UCLA (-140)
The Bruins are on upset alert. North Carolina's offense is on fire thanks to sublime ball movement and their defense is peaking. UCLA, meanwhile, ranks in the 39th percentile in defensive rating over their last five and barely beat Akron in the opening round.
Already with an offensive and defensive advantage, the cherry on top is the Tar Heels' elite defensive rebounding. Every year, there's a team that puts it altogether at the right time and makes a deep run. North Carolina is that team.
Pick: No. 8 North Carolina Advances
No. 3 Purdue (-1200) vs No. 15 Saint Peter's (+850)
I'd love to take the Peacocks here. I really would. But Jaden Ivey has snapped out of his slump and has the Boilermakers playing like they did early in the season when they looked like one of the best few teams in America.
Purdue's defense is still a problem, but this is where Saint Peter's Cinderella story comes to a close. I think they've got a great chance to cover the spread, but the Peacocks are no match for the Boilermakers' offense when Ivey is playing well.
Pick: No. 3 Purdue Advances
No. 8 North Carolina vs No. 3 Purdue
It's Tar Heel season, baby. North Carolina is just playing too well to ignore. Brady Manek has been a revelation and Purdue's shaky defense will be their downfall. Before the NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers closed the year on an 0-9-1 against the spread run. I don't trust them to stop a Tar Heels offense that's unlocked a new ceiling.
North Carolina won't be afraid and they'll advance to the Final Four.
Pick: No. 8 North Carolina Wins East Region
South Region
No. 5 Houston (+105) vs No. 1 Arizona (-125)
The Cougars are poised to knock the Wildcats off. TCU nearly beat Arizona thanks to securing 20 offensive rebounds and Houston happens to have the second-best offensive rebounding rate in college basketball.
Arizona has looked ripe for an upset for a while, barely beating Stanford in the Pac-12 Conference tournament before needing overtime against TCU. Besides Gonzaga, Houston is the only team remaining with a top-10 offense and defense, per KenPom. They'll ride that balance to a victory.
Pick: No. 5 Houston Advances
No. 11 Michigan (+185) vs No. 2 Villanova (-240)
The dogs are barking in the South Region, as the Wolverines are going to beat Villanova. This matchup presents a lot of problems for the Wildcats. Michigan's offense is geared around Hunter Dickinson and he should dominate the interior against a Villanova defense that doesn't have an answer for him.
On the other end, the Wildcats depend on three-pointers but the Wolverines have defended the perimeter well. We need to differentiate ourselves a bit when filling out this second-chance bracket and we're going to do so here in the South. Michigan shocks the world and beats Villanova.
Pick: No. 11 Michigan Advances
No. 5 Houston vs No. 11 Michigan
This is where the Wolverines' run ends. Houston is a much deeper, more balanced team and will be able to defend Dickinson in the post.
Michigan's guards struggle with pressure and the Cougars will hound them all game long. Look for that to be the difference as Houston makes their second consecutive Final Four.
Pick: No. 5 Houston Wins South Region
Midwest Region
No. 4 Providence (+275) vs No. 1 Kansas (-350)
This is Kansas' region to lose. The Jayhawks rank in the 95th percentile in offensive rating and 99th in defensive over their last five and look like one of the most complete teams in America.
Providence looks great too and have an experienced roster that won't be afraid of Kansas, but the Jayhawks will have answers for the Friars defensively and won't be pushed around down low like South Dakota State and Richmond were. Kansas is better than Providence in all areas of the floor and will hold the Friars off.
Pick: No. 1 Kansas Advances
No. 11 Iowa State (+115) vs No. 10 Miami (-140)
Before the tournament, I identified Miami as a dark horse with immense Final Four potential. My beloved Hurricanes have been fantastic and should be able to take care of a Cyclones team that's punching above their weight.
LSU and Wisconsin are both stagnant offensively and were shaky coming into the tournament, but Miami is one of the best offenses in America. Between Isaiah Wong, Kameron McGusty, and Charlie Moore, they've got too many guys they can rely on for the Cyclones to stop them. Iowa State won't be able to keep up with the Hurricanes.
Pick: No. 10 Miami Advances
No. 1 Kansas vs No. 10 Miami
Miami's defense will be completely overmatched against the Jayhawks. Kansas is too deep and too talented for the feisty Hurricanes to keep up with and the Jayhawks' defense will do enough to frustrate Miami's ballhandlers.
The path is wide open for Kansas to make their first Final Four since 2018 and they'll take advantage.
Pick: No. 1 Kansas Wins Midwest Region
Final Four
No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 8 North Carolina
North Carolina ranks 125th in two-point shooting percentage and 105th in defensive two-point percentage. Gonzaga, meanwhile, ranks first in both categories.
The Bulldogs interior advantage will be the difference here, as they rely on Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme to overwhelm the Tar Heels' inside and power them to the National Championship.
Pick: No. 1 Gonzaga Advances
No. 5 Houston vs No. 1 Kansas
This would be a fascinating matchup, but if the Jayhawks' defense over the last month is legit then they'll win. And I think it is. Kansas can match Houston's defensive intensity and have a better offense, so I side with the Jayhawks.
Kansas is more battle-tested too, having won the Big 12 regular season and conference titles. KenPom has them with the third-hardest strength of schedule and the most difficult opposing defense strength of schedule, so the Jayhawks will be prepared to handle the Cougars.
I picked a Gonzaga vs Kansas national championship before the tournament and I'm sticking to it. Rock Chalk.
Pick: No. 1 Kansas Advances
National Championship
No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 1 Kansas
The Bulldogs have struggled against physical teams that can push Holmgren and Timme around down low. Kansas' X-factor in this one is David McCormack, their often-maligned big man who looks more like an Olympic shot-put athlete than a basketball player. Big Dave is strong and his physicality will make Gonzaga uncomfortable.
Gonzaga is just 2-6 against the spread over their last eight while Kansas is absolutely rolling. With Remy Martin healthy, the Jayhawks have too many talented players they can throw at the Bulldogs. I'm a bit biased because I've spent my entire life as a Kansas fan, but this is the year the Jayhawks cut down the nets.
I was 14 when Kansas last won the NCAA Tournament and I still remember fist-pumping so hard when Mario Chalmers hit a three to send the game to overtime that I accidentally punched my little brother in the face. I'm ready to lose control of my extremities in jubilant celebration once again. The Jayhawks are going to win the national title.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
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