March Madness Sweet 16 Line Movement (Early Money Backing Several Key Favorites)
By Ben Heisler
Favorites may have finished under .500 (24-26 ATS) during the first and second round of the NCAA men's tournament, but that's not stopping the early money from moving back in that direction.
After the full Sweet 16 slate was revealed Sunday evening and odds were set, several notable games have been on the move ahead of Thursday and Friday's Regional semifinal action.
Let's go through the most notable games where the lines have begun to take off, with all odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds (Which games have the most line movement?)
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga
- OPENING ODDS AT WYNNBET: Gonzaga -8.5 (-110)
- CURRENT ODDS AT WYNNBET: Gonzaga -9 (-110)
- GAME PREVIEW AND PICK
Gonzaga, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament appeared to have their hands full with No. 9 Memphis, but Drew Timme took over in the second half, scoring 21 of his 25 points to rally from a 10-point first half deficit.
Now, the Zags face the lone survivor out of the SEC in Arkansas, who have won both of their first and second round games by an average of 4.5 points against two double digit seeds in No. 13 Vermont as well as No. 12 New Mexico State.
While we know who BetSided's Iain MacMillan will be rooting for, early indications are the Razorbacks may have trouble keeping up with the Zags on the offensive side of the ball. Arkansas ranks 53rd in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to top 9 for the Bulldogs, while being the top defensive team in the nation in limiting effective field goal percentage.
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 2 Villanova
- OPENING ODDS AT WYNNBET: Villanova -4.5 (-110)
- CURRENT ODDS AT WYNNBET: Villanova -5 (-110)
- GAME PREVIEW AND PICK
Not a huge move towards the favorite, but the Wildcats have answered the call in their first two games of the tournament with convincing victories over a very good Delaware offense and a talented Ohio State team in the second round.
The Wolverines have also looked impressive, particularly against No. 3 Tennessee on Saturday. Michigan dropped 76 points on 55.3% shooting inside the arc against the third-best adjusted defense in the country.
The Wildcats have advantages on Michigan in almost every statistical category: adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, three-point percentage, and free throw shooting where they rank tops in the country. The Cats have also covered in both their games so far in the tournament.
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Miami (FL)
- OPENING ODDS AT WYNNBET: Miami (FL) -1 (-110)
- CURRENT ODDS AT WYNNBET: Miami (FL) -2.5 (-110)
- GAME PREVIEW AND PICK
The nightcap of Friday's action from the Midwest regional in Chicago has seen the biggest line move of all eight Sweet 16 games; moving the Hurricanes from 1-point favorites up to 2.5.
As I wrote in my game preview on Monday, the Cyclones haven't faced a matchup as difficult as the Hurricanes' offense so far in the tournament. While their defense has been exceptional, they'll need to be able to keep pace with Miami as well, as less than 60 points (which they've scored and won in both games) won't likely be enough to win or cover.
BetSided's Reed Wallach was also on this matchup early at -1, citing his reasons for backing the 'Canes on Monday's episode of "Bet & Breakfast."
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