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March Madness Sweet 16 Underdog Pick of the Day (Take the Ride to Cougar Town with Houston)

By Ben Heisler

Houston Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson has his team back in the Sweet 16 and needs two more wins to return to his third Final Four and second straight.
Houston Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson has his team back in the Sweet 16 and needs two more wins to return to his third Final Four and second straight. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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Of all four matchups in Thursday evening's Sweet 16 action of the NCAA men's tournament, the latest movement towards any of the underdogs is on final game of the night from San Antonio.

The No. 5 seeded Houston Cougars, fresh off a drubbing of No. 4-seeded Illinois return to their home state to face the No. 1 seeded Arizona Wildcats who needed overtime to knock off fellow Texas school TCU in the Round of 32.

Houston's defense and offensive rebounding prowess took over in the final 10 minutes, giving bettors a lasting impression of the type of coaching and skillset the Cougars have. Consequently, the line has moved in this game from Arizona as a 2-point favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook down to just 1.5. The move towards the Houston side is starting to pick up momentum across multiple books as well as within our own team!

On Tuesday, the full BetSided editorial squad came together during a live stream to fill out a second chance bracket on the air, and sure enough, the Cougars not only upset Arizona in the Sweet 16, but ended up all the way in the Championship game! You can check out the round-by-round analysis below.

Let's take a quick look at the latest odds for Thursday evening's nightcap over at WynnBET.

Houston vs. Arizona Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Houston: +1.5 (-110)
  • Arizona: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Houston: +105
  • Arizona: -125

Total: 145 (Over -110/Under -110)

Why I'm Picking Houston to Upset Arizona in the Sweet 16

The Wildcats have been brilliant throughout the entire season, but their Round of 32 overtime loss to TCU exposed several holes that head coach Kelvin Sampson should be able to exploit with multiple days available to review the tape.

Both teams rank in the upper tiers of college basketball in offensive rating, with Houston in the 100th percentile over their last five games, and 97th on the season. Arizona is the same, consistently remaining in the 98th percentile in offensive rating both in their last five and on the season.

Defensively, however, the Cougars are locked in and Arizona is way down. Over the past five games, Arizona ranks in the 33rd percentile in defensive rating, up more than 10.5 full points! Houston, while down a few knocks, still ranks in the 92nd percentile on that side of the floor, and was 99th this season overall.

Then there's the coaching aspect. When I filled out my initial bracket, I had No. 2 Villanova winning the south region over No. 1 Arizona based on Nova's sensational free-throw shooting (tops in the NCAA), as well as the experience of Jay Wright against Tommy Lloyd's first NCAA Tournament as a head coach. While Houston's free throw shooting ranks in the bottom 60, there's still a decisive advantage in favor of Sampson as he returns to his sixth Sweet 16 of his college coaching career.

Between the sharp move towards Houston, the consistency on both ends of the floor, and Sampson having multiple days to prep for Arizona, I like the dog to win outright in San Antonio this evening.

PICK: Houston moneyline (+105)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

Want even more upset picks? BetSided's Joe Summers listed out all of the underdogs he expects to be live this Thursday and Friday in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA men's tournament!

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