March Madness Wild Wagering Trends for the Sweet 16 (Big Underdogs Do Better than You Think)
By Ben Heisler
The regional semifinals of the NCAA men's tournament begin on Thursday from San Francisco and San Antonio, as West and South region matchups get underway. Later on Friday, the Midwest and East region games tip-off from Philadelphia and Chicago.
16 teams, ranging from 1-seeds to a 15-seed in Saint Peter's will look to create history and move on to the Elite Eight this weekend.
With plenty of betting opportunities available over at WynnBET Sportsbook for all the matchups, you may want to be aware of a few notable betting trends for the Sweet 16 round in particular before you place your wagers.
Top Sweet 16 Betting Trends for March Madness
Don't Doubt No. 1 Seeds With a Longer Turnaround Time
The Sweet 16 has been awfully kind to No. 1 seeds going back to the tournament's expansion back in 1985. According to FOX Sports, top seeds are 76-23 straight up vs. a 4 or 5 seed in the semi-finals of the regional rounds of March Madness, and are 53-40-6 ATS (against the spread). FOX Sports' research also goes on to mention that No. 1 seeds are 18-1 in this round since 2014.
One team worth considering on the opposite side of this trend is the 5-seeded Houston Cougars, who are 1.5-point underdogs against No. 1 Arizona. In fact, not only are they my underdog of the day, to win straight up, but the entire BetSided team collectively chose the Cougars to cut down the nets against Gonzaga in our second chance bracket live stream!
You can find the full analysis below.
Double-digit underdogs are 11-5 ATS in the Sweet 16
While the line could still move No. 1 Gonzaga to a double-digit favorite against No. 4 Arkansas in the West region, there's only one game on the Thursday-Friday slate that features a double-digit underdog: Saint Peter's, the No. 15 seed vs. No. 3 Purdue.
Since 2007, double-digit dogs have gone 11-5 against the spread during the Sweet 16. That's a cover percentage of just under 68%
Saint Peter's also fits the profile of a great team to bet on, not just in the NCAA Tournament but also all season. The Peacocks finished the season 22-9-0 ATS, covering 71% of their games. However, don't count on them to move onto the Elite Eight, as a 15-seed has never gone past the Sweet 16 in the tournament's history.
Fade Coach K and Duke as an Underdog in March
BetSided's Reed Wallach went through the times in Duke's history as an underdog in the NCAA tournament, and to no surprise, there hasn't been many of them.
However, in the five times since 2003 that they have not been a favorite in a March Madness matchup, Duke has gone 1-4 straight up (SU), and 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS).
While the 2-2-1 part may not look so bad, consider this.
In April games, indicating either the Final Four or National Championship game. the Blue Devils are 2-0 ATS. In March, the Blue Devils have never covered; going 0-2-1 ATS.
For what it's worth, Wallach has the Red Raiders advancing as a 1-point favorite out in San Francisco Thursday evening.
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE!