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Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Series Odds See Massive Shift After Game 1

The Dallas Mavericks' odds to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves have done a complete 180 after they stole Game 1 at Target Center.

By Peter Dewey

Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) and forward P.J. Washington (25) celebrate.
Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) and forward P.J. Washington (25) celebrate. / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
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The Dallas Mavericks have stolen several games on the road this postseason, and they did it again on Wednesday night in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

A late fourth-quarter run -- led by MVP finalist Luka Doncic -- helped Dallas take early control of the series, completely flipping the odds to advance to the NBA Finals in the process.

Dallas entered the Western Conference Finals at +138 to win the series, but that has now completely fllipped with the latest odds installing the Mavericks as -165 favorites.

Obviously, that makes sense since Dallas needs just three more wins to close out the series and has home-court advantage -- for now -- over Minnesota.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Updated Series Odds

  • Mavericks: -165
  • Timberwolves: +140

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Based on these odds from DraftKings, Dallas has a 62.26 percent chance to win the series and reach the NBA Finals.

A lot can change over the next few games, but stealing a game early on in the series on the road bodes well for the Mavs' chances. Not only did Dallas follow a similar path in each of the first two rounds, but the Timberwolves did in the second round against the Denver Nuggets as well, taking Games 1 and 2 at Ball Arena.

While Dallas is in the driver's seat right now, it is worth noting an important trend for the Wolves this postseason that could alter these odds again.

Assuming the Wolves are able to bounce back in Game 2 -- and even if they don't -- these series odds could flip if Minnesota stays hot on the road. Minnesota is a shocking 5-1 straight up and against the spread as a road underdog in the playoffs this season, by far the best mark in the NBA.

So, since the Wolves will likely be road dogs in Games 3 and 4, it's not out of the question that they too could steal a road game and flip this series back in their favor.

Regardless, Dallas is in a great spot after winning Game 1. In the NBA playoffs, teams that win Game 1 are 680-195 in the series, winning at over a 77 percent clip. In the Conference Finals, the percentage is about the same, with the team up 1-0 winning the series 82 times in 106 tries (77.4 percent)

That would tell us that Dallas' series odds are slightly lower than they should be, which could make Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and company worth a bet ahead of Game 2.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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