Mets Now Largest Favorites of the MLB Season with Jacob deGrom Facing Rockies in New York
By Ben Heisler
Jacob deGrom's return to the mound this August for the New York Mets helped reignite their lofty expectations for the postseason and beyond this year.
Now, even more pressure has been set on the 34-year old right hander and his team tonight when they face Ryan Feltner and the Colorado Rockies at home.
The Mets' odds, listed as high as -460 at several sportsbooks are now the largest single game favorites of the entire 2022 season, surpassing the Toronto Blue Jays back on July 14 when they faced a Kansas City Royals team missing 10 players due to their unvaccinated status.
Jacob deGrom and the Mets are as high as -460 vs. the Rockies tonight.
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) August 25, 2022
Not only are they the largest MLB favorites of the season, they're also the largest single-game favorite since 2019, when the Astros closed at -418 vs. the Tigers on 8/22.
(Data via @TeamRankings BetIQ)
deGrom is no stranger to being a massive favorite. According to Darren Rovell, he's actually one of four starting pitchers for a MLB team as a -450 favorite or larger.
Justin Verlander has been a -450 favorite three times in his career, with deGrom and Gerrit Cole hitting this number twice. Clayton Kershaw is the fourth name on the list, hitting this line just once throughout his 15 years in the Big Leagues.
How Have The Biggest Favorites Done This MLB Season?
If you think a team closing as monster favorites is all but a lock to win on the moneyline, think again.
Sports Betting columnist Albert Bainbridge IV points out that over the course of 2022, the biggest underdogs of the season (facing favorites of -400 or larger) are 6-2 straight up this season!
Betting info for tonight's #Mets & #Rockies matchup. While it may seem like a safe bet, favorites of -400 or more are 2-6 this season so buyer beware even with Jacob deGrom on the mound tonight for the #Mets. #LGM #Rockies #MLB #bettingtwitter #bettingadvice #bettingtips https://t.co/v7vEGzeCgI
— Albert Bainbridge IV (@bert_bainbridge) August 25, 2022
Furthermore, via P.J. Walsh of Action Network, since 2005, there have only been 23 times where an MLB team has closed at -400 or greater. While they're 17-6 straight up, they're actually a losing bet; down 2.06 units.
While I'm not planning on betting the Rockies to win, even with enticing +340 odds, both Donnavan Smoot and I are fading deGrom's massive strikeout prop bet of 9.5 this evening.
Meanwhile, BetSided's Reed Wallach does have a play on tonight's matchup, but choosing to focus on the total rather than on the side.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!