MLB Best Bets Today (Two Undervalued Pitchers on Bad Teams Make for Sneaky Pitcher's Duel in Chicago)

Monday's 12-game slate features a few noteworthy matchups on the board for bettors.

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves tonight in an NL East battle featuring two teams headed in opposite directions. Things have gotten contentious in Philadelphia following the Chicago Cubs sweep of the Phillies to begin the second half.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox look to work their way back into playoff relevancy with an important AL-matchup starting tonight in Boston. Over their five game losing streak, the Red Sox have been outscored 67-13.

With lots of fun options on the board for Monday's action, I'm looking at a play and a prop for the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles game from the Charm City, as well as a total in Chicago between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

MLB Best Bets Today

• Orioles ML +105 vs. Rays
• Rougned Odor OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-145)
• Pirates vs. Cubs UNDER 8.5 (-120)

Orioles ML (+105) vs. Rays

Tampa Bay comes off a tough series against a bad Kansas City Royals team; dropping two of three on the road. The Rays' trip continues vs. the Orioles in Baltimore as Corey Kluber faces fellow right-hander Austin Voth.

Voth has been insanely unlucky in 2022; pitching to a 6.38 ERA with an expected Fielder Independent Pitching, or xFIP of almost half of his ERA at 3.87. Meanwhile, Kluber has been extremely hittable this year despite solid numbers. He's pitched to a 3.73 ERA and 3.44 FIP, but his strikeout rate is way down to the lowest of his career since 2012 (7.85 K/9). His expected batting average against (xBA) and expected slugging percentage against (xSLG) rank in the 32nd and 35th percentile of all pitchers this year, via MLB Statcast data.

BetSided's Iain MacMillan also agrees with the move on Baltimore, jumping on the O's earlier on Monday when the line was closer to +125.

Rougned Odor OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-145)

Before you laugh in my face for taking an over prop of a player barely hitting above .200; note that Odor has dominated Rays starter Corey Kluber throughout his career.

Odor in 18 at-bats, has eight hits against Kluber, with three home runs and two doubles. He's also only struck out twice, so he's seen the ball exceptionally well against him.

If the Orioles are to pull off the slight upset at home, Odor's history against Kluber could play a prominent role in the outcome.

Pirates vs. Cubs UNDER 8.5 (-120)

I highlighted this matchup earlier at BetSided in my betting preview, but the total is far too high for two pitchers that have pitched fairly well this year despite the numbers stacked against them.

Adrian Sampson has a 3.06 ERA in his 67.2 innings as a Chicago Cub over this season and last. Despite the outstanding numbers, he has yet to earn a win this season; earning only 16 total runs of support through his first five starts.

The same thing goes for Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker; who despite his 2-8 record, has an ERA right at 4 and a FIP of 3.73.

The weather at Wrigley tonight is also much more cool than usual; with the wind blowing in more than 10 mph, offering a sizable boost for both pitchers.

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