NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Ja Morant, Warriors-Grizzlies and Bobby Portis)
By Peter Dewey
The NBA playoffs are back after a one-day hiatus, and we’ve got a pair of electric second round matchups on Sunday.
The Boston Celtics and their No. 1 defense take on Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks at 1 p.m. EST. That's followed up by Steph Curry and Ja Morant dueling in Game 1 of the Golden State Warriors-Memphis Grizzlies series.
This is basketball nirvana, isn’t it?
A sweep on Friday night has put our playoff picks at 33-20, and I have three picks for the two games on Sunday afternoon.
That’s a sweep! ??
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 30, 2022
33-20 on the playoffs, keep following for my best bet in EVERY playoff game! @BetSided https://t.co/eyaKIyV4gY
Let’s break them down!
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 218-192-5 (+6.5441 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Bobby Portis OVER 13.5 Points (-115)
- Golden State Warriors Moneyline vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-130)
- Ja Morant UNDER 25.5 Points (-105)
Who should you bet on in the NBA this Sunday! We've got you covered in today's episode of Bet & Breakfast!
Bobby Portis OVER 13.5 Points (-115)
This prop has been a go to when betting on the Bucks, especially with Khris Middleton out of the lineup.
Bobby Portis has thrived with Middelton out, averaging 14.7 points on 12.9 field goal attempts per game.
He’s also averaging 15.5 points per game as a starter this season while taking 12.5 shots per game. As a reserve, he’s averaging just 10.4 points per game on 10.4 shots. The Bucks need Portis to pick up a bigger scoring load, and he should have some decent looks with Giannis Antetokounmpo commanding a lot of the attention from Boston.
Portis has scored 18, 14 and 14 points in the three games since Middleton was injured, and I expect him to go over 13.5 points again on Sunday.
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies: Warriors Moneyline (-130)
I am not rushing to back Memphis in any scenario after it played a sloppy first-round series with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Grizzlies turned the ball over 16 times per game in the first round, and they were able to benefit from a Minnesota team that was even worse in the turnover department and couldn’t stop blowing double-digit lead after double-digit lead.
The Warriors are too experienced of a team to expect that to happen, and Golden State may bury Memphis if it goes on a run like the Wolves did at times in the first round.
Defensively, the Grizzlies match up pretty well with Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, but you’re going to have to find somewhere to hide Ja Morant on defense in this series.
The Warriors had the best offensive rating of any team in the first round of the playoffs, and they will make a young Memphis team pay for making silly mistakes. I’ll trust Curry and company to get this series started off with a road win.
Ja Morant UNDER 25.5 Points (-105)
Ja Morant led the NBA in points in the paint during the regular season, but the points haven’t come as easy with heightened defense in the NBA playoffs.
Ja has cleared this number just twice in six playoff games, and he’s shooting just 38.6 percent from the field and 20.0 percent from beyond the arc.
Golden State had the No. 2 defensive rating in the league during the regular season, and it held opponents to 48.0 points in the paint per game (good for 12th in the NBA). Unless Morant’s jumpshot improves, I can’t see him getting to the rim at will the way he did in the regular season.