NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Joel Embiid, Spurs-Timberwolves on Thursday)

We need a bounce-back day in the NBA Best Bets column, as yesterday resulted in the dreaded reverse sweep with Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic both coming just short of their points props. 

I’m determined to turn that around today, but with several key players being ruled out for the action on Thursday, including LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jayson Tatum and Dejounte Murray, I have just two picks to make. 

Let’s jump right into them, with all odds via WynnBET:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 180-167-5 (-2.0888 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• San Antonio Spurs-Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 241.5 (-110)
• Joel Embiid UNDER 32.5 Points (-125)

San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: UNDER 241.5 (-110)

The initial reaction to this game is to bet the OVER, as both teams play a fast pace, Minnesota being No. 1 in the league, but a few trends and some recent form have me leading in the other direction. 

I broke down interesting trends that I found today earlier, as even though the Spurs are around .500 on OVERs this season, going 38-39-2, they are a great UNDER team as road dogs.  

The Spurs are 19-10-1 on UNDERs as road dogs, and they’ve been really solid on defense as of late, ranking third in defensive rating over their last 10 games.

With the total at 241.5 in this game against the Timberwolves (15-12 on UNDERs as a home favorite), I think the UNDER is the play. 

While these teams both play at a fast pace, and combined for 288 points in their last meeting, this may be a spot to back to zig when everyone else is zagging. I’ll expect a high-scoring game, but not too high on Thursday night.

Joel Embiid UNDER 32.5 Points (-125)

Joel Embiid scored just 21 points on 6-of-20 shooting in his last game against the Toronto Raptors, and it’s mainly because they have so many lengthy bodies to throw at him in the post.

Now, Embiid gets Toronto on the road on Thursday, and while I think he can have a better game, 32.5 points is a little high for my liking. 

Embiid has failed to clear this line in six of his last 10 games as it is, and I think Nick Nurse and the Raptors have a solid plan of how to defend him. Not only that, but these are two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, ranking 27th and 26th in the league. 

Less possessions against a good defense is a perfect recipe to take the under.