NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Luka Doncic, Bucks-Celtics in Sunday's Game 7s)

Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. / Ron Jenkins/GettyImages


It’s the best time of the year, as two of the best matchups in the conference semifinals have gone to winner-take-all Game 7s on Sunday. 

Luka Doncic and Devin Booker square off in the Phoenix Suns-Dallas Mavericks game tonight, while Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo own the afternoon slate in the Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks game

Let’s sit back and enjoy some high quality basketball… oh, and win some bets!

Here are my best bets for each Game 7 on Sunday: 

All odds via WynnBET:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 237-219-5 (+8.458 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Boston Celtics -5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-110)
  • Luka Doncic UNDER 53.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics: Celtics -5 (-110)

I’ve bet on Boston several times in a row in this series, and I don’t see a reason to stop now. 

The Bucks squandered an opportunity to close out the series at home in Game 6, and Boston has been the better team offensively by far in this series. 

Sure, Game 7 sometimes comes down to which team has the best player, and it’s Giannis Antetokounmpo in this series, but I can’t see Boston blowing another chance at home in this series. 

The Bucks have gotten very little out of their role guys in this series, as Pat Connaughton was the only one who really had anything going in Game 6. 

Since 2011, home teams are an impressive 22-10 straight up in Game 7, and home teams that are favored by five or more are 14-10 against the spread and 19-5 straight up. 

Boston weathered the storm in Milwaukee, and I think it can handle the Bucks at home on Sunday. 

Luka Doncic UNDER 53.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

Yes, Luka Doncic averages an insane 39.0 points per game in playoff elimination games in his career, but this number is way too high for me to get to on Sunday. 

The total in this game at WynnBET is set at 204.5, which means there are only going to be so many offensive possessions and numbers than Doncic can put up. 

In this series, Doncic has points, rebounds and assists (PRA) numbers of 65, 47, 48, 44, 41 and 52. 

He’s played in nine playoff games this season, and he’s cleared this total just one time. That game? Game 1 against Phoenix where he scored 45 points and took a playoff-high 30 shots. 

It’s possible Doncic does that given his elimination game track record, but he was also facing elimination in Game 6 and had 33 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists (52 PRA). 

Game 7s usually are a slower pace with so much on the line, so I’ll take the under on this juiced number for Doncic tonight.

Get even more insight for today's NBA Game 7s on "Bet & Breakfast!"