Betsided

NFL Best Bets for Week 8 (Fade Broncos, Back Geno Smith's Seahawks and Two Bills-Packers Predictions)

By Peter Dewey, Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Iain MacMillan, Joe Summers

Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson.
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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Every week in the NFL season, the BetSided editors are sharing their favorite bet in the NFL, and we’re coming off a positive showing in Week 7. 

So far this season, we are 15-16-1 on our picks, and we have four more plays for you in Week 8. 

Let’s dive into this week’s best bets: 

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

  • Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) vs. New York Giants
  • Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos
  • Jacksonville Jaguars–Denver Broncos UNDER 39.5 
  • Buffalo Bills -10.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
  • Green Bay Packers +10.5 vs. Buffalo Bills

Seattle Seahawks -3 (-110) vs. New York Giants

I grabbed the Seahawks as soon as I could while the number was at -2, and even at -3, I still believe it’s the right side.

Let’s give the Giants credit for what they’ve accomplished. After all, this many second half double digit deficits through the first seven games of the year has only been accomplished once this century! Sometimes, you make your own luck, and the Giants’ toughness and ability to overcome adversity late in games warrants the wins they’ve created.

But it’s still luck! New York, via Action Network’s Luck metrics rank far and away ahead of everyone else in the NFL with a Luck% of 39.5%.

New York is undefeated straight up as an underdog this year, and at some point, this stretch will run out. They play their second straight on the road, traveling from Jacksonville to New Jersey and now out to Seattle. Via Evan Abrams, teams going from eastern to pacific time on the road are just 9-19-1 vs. the spread since 2019.

Sorry, G-Men, but your luck runs out in Seattle this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos

The Jaguars are a much better team than the Broncos, and I love catching Jacksonville at anything under a field goal. 

Pick any metric you want and the Jaguars come out on top. Both teams have strong defenses, but Jacksonville has a ginormous advantage offensively. The Jags 16th in points per game (22.1) and 10th in yards per play (5.8) with a promising QB, while Denver is dead-last in points per game (14.3) and 23rd in yards per play (5.1).

Poor red zone efficiency has doomed the Jaguars in recent weeks, but no team is worse in the red zone than Nathaniel Hackett's bunch. Whether Russell Wilson plays or doesn't is irrelevant - no QB on the Broncos' roster is any good. 

Back Jacksonville to emerge victorious behind a strong performance from Trevor Lawrence and another disastrous one from Mr. Limited and Denver.

Jacksonville Jaguars–Denver Broncos UNDER 39.5

I have zero confidence in the Denver Broncos' offense in this game, and that’s a major reason why the team is 6-1 on UNDERs so far this season. 

The other reason is Denver’s defense, who has allowed the third fewest points in the NFL this season. I think Denver can give Trevor Lawrence some trouble, as the second-year signal-caller has been shaky at times in 2022. 

It doesn’t really matter who plays quarterback for Denver, this team is amongst the worst in points per game and has been brutal in standalone/primetime games. 

It’s going to be an ugly game across the pond, so I’ll gladly take the UNDER here.  

Buffalo Bills -10.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are cooked. None of the receivers can catch, the running game hasn’t been able to carry the offense, and the defense isn’t the elite unit it thought it could be.

Now it has to go on the road to face one of the top two quarterbacks in the league and his truly elite defense. Green Bay has struggled a lot this season and the Packers won’t have any answer for the array of weapons the Bills can throw at them.

Green Bay Packers +10.5 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Packers were a bad team to bet on the past few weeks when they were around touchdown favorites. Now, they're double-digit underdogs. That is a wild shift in betting lines, and I think it's an overreaction to a bad run by the Packers.

Sure, the Packers aren't likely Super Bowl contenders, but they're not a "bad" teams. They rank 17th in yards per play and 12th in opponent yards per play. Those aren't great numbers by a long stretch, but they aren't bad.

The Packers defense does have some bright spots as well, including being ranked third in opponent third down conversion rate, sixth in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage, and ninth in sack percentage.

The Bills are clearly better, but if I'm going to lay over 10 points on a team, I'm going to need that squad to be playing against one of the worst teams in the NFL, which the Packers certainly aren't.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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