NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Team in Week 4

Each week on the Bacon Bets Podcast, BetSided's Iain MacMillan goes through every game on the board on his road to 272; wagering on each matchup for every week of the season.

Last week was a great one for our guy, going 11-4-1 for his bets.

This week, I'm filling in for the man in the bacon suit, as I take my stab at handicapping every matchup on the board for Week 4. So far this season, I'm 24-24-0 ATS, but have hit on a few key anytime touchdown props to put my unit count at +6.83. Any wagers I make can always be found here at BetSided or via my BetStamp profile in real-time.

If you're in search of just straight-up picks for your pool this weekend, or any other contests or moneyline bets you're making, BetSided's Donnavan Smoot has you covered.

Let's go rapid-fire through the slate!

NFL Week 4 Spread Picks

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I've already bet the over when it was 46.5, but now that it's up to 48.5, I may look to middle at that juicy number of 47.

This feels like a trap game on the board with Miami 3-0 and the books begging bettors to take it. I'm not going to take the bait.

PICK: Bengals -3.5 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Another big trap where both the sharps and the public are all over the Vikings. I don't see it, however. The Saints have been in London all week, and the Saints' defense is in a great position to feast.

I'll side with the sportsbooks in the London game as Dalton takes care of the football and New Orleans forces a few Kirk Cousins interceptions.

PICK: Saints +3.5 (-110)

Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons

The pros bet this up from Falcons +3, but the Browns should control time of possession easily on Atlanta's defense. Now that it's near a pick 'em, I like Cleveland at this number with some extra rest.

Atlanta's offense looks promising, but all Cleveland needs to do is give the ball to Chubb all day vs. a Falcons team that ranks 20th in yards/attempt.

LEAN: Browns -1 (-110)

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Bills are juggernauts, but when the line keeps moving in Baltimore's direction all week at home, it's worth noticing. Buffalo for all their talent, is 0-7 over the last two years in one-possession games, which I expect this game to be.

PICK: Ravens +3 (-110)

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Washington's not as bad as they looked against the Eagles a week ago, and conversely, the Cowboys aren't as good as they appeared vs. the Giants.

I preferred Washington when they were at +3.5, but I'll still take them as just a field goal dog on the road.

LEAN: Washington +3

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

Detroit is banged up, but they also face arguably the worst team in football traveling from the Pacific Northwest for an early start time.

I was also crazy enough to pick them in Survivor this week before the injury bug hit hard, so I guess I'm going down with the ship.

PICK: Lions -4 (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

Similar to the Lions, the Chargers, hurt or not are a far superior team to Houston on both sides of the ball. With Keenan Allen expected to return and another week or healing up for Justin Herbert, this is a far better team than the one who got torched by Jacksonville.

Davis Mills is always primed for a key turnover late in the game, evidenced by what we saw in Chicago last week.

PICK: Chargers -5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Are the Colts 4-points better than anyone right now? If not for a Chris Jones penalty, a dropped Travis Kelce touchdown, and about 20 other plays, they'd be sitting at 0-3 right now instead of an upset winner vs. K.C. last week.

The Titans aren't good, but they'll keep it closer than most expect in Indy.

LEAN: Titans +4 (-110)

Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants

There's a bit of fraudulent nature to both of these 2-1 teams, but I'll take Chicago's defense with the hook against Daniel Jones at home who's 8-13 ATS.

Also, if the Bears finish above .500 with the worst quarterback play in the NFL, is Matt Eberflus the Coach of the Year?

LEAN: Bears +3.5 (-110)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles

There's a lot of travel involved for the Jags. They went from Jacksonville in Week 2, to L.A. in Week 3, and now go to Philadelphia in Week 4.

However, it's still really early in the season for me to be concerned. The Eagles look great, but they've also let teams hang around in the second half.

I'll walk down narrative street and take them at this number in the Doug Pederson revenge game.

PICK: Jaguars +6.5 (-110)

New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The line moved back to Steelers -3 when it was announced that Zach Wilson would start over Joe Flacco.

I'm not sure what the Jets have done to earn such a thing, but I'll happily take Pittsburgh off a long week at home to bounce back vs. a Jets team leaving plenty to be desired.

PICK: Steelers -3 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

I'm going to go against the sharps who have taken the Panthers here, and grab Arizona and the points on the road where Kyler Murray seems to play his best football.

I also have seen sizable improvement from the Cardinals' defense after they were embarrassed at home to Pat Mahomes and company to think they can handle Baker Mayfield with possibly no Christian McCaffrey.

PICK: Cardinals +2 (-110)

New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers

For full disclosure, one of my earliest bets of the week was to take New England when the line got moved all the way to +10/+10.5, but I don't love it as much at +9.5.

However, I think Brian Hoyer for one game is perfectly capable of holding his own as the Patriots backup for Mac Jones. Aaron Rodgers and company still have a banged up offensive line with hurt receivers and the Pats' defense will take some game notes from last week in their inconsistent performance vs. Tampa Bay.

PICK: Patriots +9.5 (-110)

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Either you're backing the Raiders as one last hurrah and hoping that Russell Wilson is indeed cooked, or you take the team with the far better defense and spark from the end of the game last week vs. a good 49ers defense.

Personally, I think it's a combination of the two, and while nobody wants anything to do with Denver right now, I am impressed with their defensive effort from Week 2 on.

Perhaps I'm walking into another trap, and historical trends favor Vegas, but I just think they're awful, especially defensively.

PICK: Broncos +2.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady is 10-0 over the last 20 years ATS following a loss. The game is in Tampa Bay after Hurricane Ian wrecked through the west coast of Florida, and Mike Evans is back.

I think the line is reasonable where it was, and liked Tampa much more when they were +2.5 on the board. I still like the line as essentially a pick 'em.

PICK: Buccaneers -1 (-110)

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G don't appear to be on the same page, and we're starting to see why the 49ers are really going to miss Trey Lance's ability to escape pressure in the pocket with Trent Williams out.

Sean McVay is also very good as a road underdog vs. the NFC West, while Kyle Shanahan has historically struggled as a home favorite.

PICK: Rams +1.5 (-110)