NFL Spread Picks for Every Game in Week 1 (Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover)
By Peter Dewey
Our wait is OVER!
The 2023 NFL regular season is upon us, and bettors can dive into the board that features 16 games for the first time since Week 18 of the 2022 season. It’s a beautiful sight.
It doesn’t take a great team to win, but it does take one to cover the spread, and there are some teams that were much better than others at doing that in 2022. The New York Giants (14-5 – including playoffs) had the best against the spread record in 2022 while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-13-1 – including playoffs) had the worst.
Who will come out on top as the best team to bet on in 2023?
We begin that journey in Week 1, and I’m going to take on the challenge of predicting the team that will cover in every single game on the slate.
For more Week 1 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 1.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $200 in bonus bets if they deposit and wager $5 on any game!
Here’s who I see covering in each game in Week 1:
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -4.5
This line has moved down from Kansas City -6.5 due to the injury to Travis Kelce, but it’s exactly when I’m ready to get back in on the Chiefs. Since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, the Chiefs are 5-0 in Week 1 and average 37.8 Week 1 points per game. I still think – at home – they have the edge over Detroit.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Ravens -10
The Texans are facing an uphill battle in this game against a healthy Ravens team. I don't think rookie CJ Stroud has a fun NFL debut.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Pick
- Pick: Bengals -2.5
Since the 2021 season, the Bengals have the second best against the spread record in the NFL at 27-13. Zac Taylor’s group also covered in seven straight wins at one point in the 2022 season. I love Cincy in Week 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick
- Pick: Vikings -6
Baker Mayfield is just 29-41-1 against the spread in his NFL career, and the Bucs’ offense is going to struggle to keep up against Justin Jefferson and company.
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Spread Pick
- Pick: Titans +3
I think Tennessee is live to win this game, and the Saints (7-10 ATS) were one of the worst teams at covering in 2022. New quarterback Derek Carr still has turnover issues (14 picks last season), so I don’t expect turnovers to just go away for the Saints after having the worst differential in the league in 2022.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Spread Pick
- Pick: Panthers +3.5
I think this game is going to be low-scoring and defensive focused with two unproven quarterbacks, so I love getting the hook here for this to stay within a field goal.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -5
Jacksonville should be one of the best teams in the AFC this season, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the team rolls past a Colts team starting rookie Anthony Richardson.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Spread Pick
- Pick: 49ers -2.5
I think San Francisco has a talent advantage on both sides of the ball – even if it is slight. Despite being favored in a ton of games last season, San Fran was 13-7 against the spread.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders Spread Pick
- Pick: Commanders -7
The Cardinals are either starting Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune at quarterback. I can’t bet on this team in good faith.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Spread Pick
- Pick: Dolphins +3
I do think the Chargers win this game, but I expect it to be close between two potent offenses. Tua Tagovailoa is 19-14-1 against the spread in his NFL career.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick
- Pick: Raiders +4
Denver hasn’t beaten Las Vegas since 2019, and now the Broncos are laying more than a field goal in Week 1? Even with Sean Payton in town, this seems like too many points to give one of the league’s worst teams last season.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles -4
This line has been moving in the Eagles’ favor, and rightfully so. The defending champs have an elite defense that should give Mac Jones trouble in Week 1.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Spread Pick
- Pick: Bears -1
I’ll be honest, this is my least confident pick of the week. I think the Bears win at home, especially since Justin Fields is the more proven quarterback, but the team was 0-1-1 ATS as a favorite in 2022.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Spread Pick
- Pick: Rams +5.5
There are plenty of reasons to bet on Sean McVay’s team to cover in this spot. McVay is 9-4 ATS all time against Pete Carroll, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. He’s also 5-1 ATS in Week 1 and 16-4 straight up in September in his career. Even if Cooper Kupp sits, I think the Rams can keep this close.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Spread Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -3.5
These teams are both looking to build on strong 2022 seasons, where the Giants went 1-1 ATS against Dallas. The issue? They lost those games by seven and eight points. I think the Cowboys may be a little undervalued in Week 1.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -2.5
The Aaron Rodgers hype for the Jets is real, but I still think Buffalo takes this Week 1 matchup. Since 2003, the Bills have gone 14-6 ATS in Week 1 games — the most profitable team in the NFL over that stretch.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.