NFL Spread Picks for Every Game in Week 12 (Can Cowboys End ATS Struggles on Thanksgiving?)

There are very few things better than a nice Thanksgiving Day spread, so why not pay homage to the holiday and bet on some against the spread picks in the NFL?

I have a pick for each of the 16 games in Week 12 – including all three matchups on Thanksgiving Day and the one matchup on Black Friday!

We had a solid showing in Week 11, but it could’ve been better. Why not turn things up this week? 

• Week 11 Record: 8-6
• Season Record: 85-76-1

For more Week 12 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!

Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 12. 

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Here is who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 12:

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick

• Pick: Lions -7.5

I’m all in on the Lions for Thanksgiving Day!

Detroit has lost six straight on Thanksgiving, but I think the team is in a good spot to cover here. The Lions are still 7-3 ATS despite not covering last week. I think they bounce back against a Packers team that could be down Aaron Jones. 

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Patriots Spread Pick

• Pick: Commanders +11

I think Dallas wins this game, but the Cowboys are just 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 Thanksgiving Day games. 

On a short week, asking Dallas to win by 12 or more against a strong Washington pass offense is too much for me. 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Spread Pick

• Pick: 49ers -6.5 

There’s a lot of uncertainty around Geno Smith (throwing arm) this week, and I’d hammer San Francisco if Drew Lock is under center for the Seahawks. 

Either way, San Fran is winning its games as road favorite by an average margin of 10.8 points. I think it can win this by a touchdown or more on Thanksgiving. 

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Spread Pick

• Pick: Dolphins -10

This spread has jumped 2.5 points since Zach Wilson was benched, but I still like Miami to cover against Tim Boyle and the New York Jets. 

The Jets have one offensive touchdown in the last three weeks, and now they have to face arguably the most explosive offense in the league. Things could get ugly on Friday. 

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Spread Pick

• Pick: Giants +3.5

This is going to be an ugly matchup, and I’ll gladly take the 3.5 points with two of the lowest scoring teams going at it in Week 12. 

The Patriots are just 2-8 ATS this season while the Giants are 3-7-1. Tommy DeVito may be able to keep this closer than oddsmakers think. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Spread Pick

• Pick: Steelers -1

Jake Browning is making his first career start for Cincinnati against T.J. Watt and the Steelers. I think that’s about as tough of a matchup as you could ask for. 

While Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been good, I think the team wins this game – thus why I’m taking it to cover. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Spread Pick

• Pick: Jaguars -1

I’m worried about Houston in this game, as the team has gotten away with some turnovers the last few weeks and still came away with wins. 

That’s going to be tougher against the Jacksonville team that finally is hitting its stride on offense. The Jaguars are an impressive 7-3 ATS and 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Spread Pick

• Pick: Buccaneers +2.5

If there’s one thing this Tampa Bay team has done for bettors, it’s cover as an underdog. 

The team is 5-2 ATS as a dog this season and, I think it could win outright against Gardner Minshew and the Colts, who aren’t exactly a powerhouse in the AFC. 

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Spread Pick

• Pick: Saints -1

Atlanta has been awful against the spread this season (2-8), and the team is turning back to the turnover-prone Desmond Ridder at quarterback. 

The Saints are just 2-7-1 ATS this season, but they do force the fourth most turnovers in the league this season. I think they can flip the game in that department on Sunday. 

Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans Spread Pick

• Pick: Panthers +4

I don’t have a ton of confidence in either of these offenses led by rookie quarterbacks, so I’m going to take the points on Sunday.

Carolina has been awful against the spread this season, but Tennessee failed to cover in its lone game as a favorite. 

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Spread Pick

• Pick: Rams -1

Los Angeles may be a little undervalued after upsetting Seattle last week, and the team is 2-2 ATS as a favorite this season. 

I still don’t think Arizona has enough help – especially on defense – to win too many games even with Kyler Murray back. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Spread Pick

• Pick: Chiefs -9.5 

This is a lot of points to lay in a division rivalry game, but I don’t see Aidan O’Connell getting much done against an underrated Chiefs defense. 

Kansas City is No. 4 in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season, and the team is 6-3 against the spread. Back the Chiefs to win big in Vegas. 

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick

• Pick: Browns +2.5 

This is going to be a low-scoring game with Cleveland’s defense dominating as of late, so I love taking the points on Sunday. 

The Broncos – even with their four-game winning streak – are just 1-4-1 against the spread as favorites this season. 

Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread Pick

• Pick: Eagles -3.5

Buffalo failed to cover in its lone game as an underdog this season, and I am worried about the team’s run defense (fifth worst in the NFL) holding up against an elite Eagles offensive line. 

Philly is 5-2-2 ATS as a favorite, winning those games by an average of 6.3 points per game. 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Spread Pick

• Pick: Ravens -4

The Chargers have yet to cover as an underdog this season (0-3 ATS), and they are coming off a bad loss to Green Bay in Week 11.

Baltimore had 10 days of rest coming into this game and is 6-4 ATS as a favorite. I’ll trust Lamar Jackson and company to get a road win and cover. 

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread Pick

• Pick: Vikings -3.5 

The Vikings are going to need to avoid turnovers in this game after they doomed them in Week 11, but I still think they win and cover at home in this matchup. 

Chicago is just 4-4-1 ATS as an underdog, and it was up 12 points with four minutes to go in Week 11 before losing by five. The Vikings – especially if Justin Jefferson returns – should be in for a bounce-back win. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.