NFL Straight Up Picks for Every Game in Week 7 (Patrick Mahomes Stays Elite vs. AFC West)
By Peter Dewey
Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season was yet another successful one for our straight-up picks, going 10-5 to push our season record to nearly 20 games over .500.
I’m looking to keep the momentum going into Week 7, which is one of the shorter weeks in the 2023 season. Six teams are on the bye – the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, and New York Jets – which means there are just 13 games to pick this week.
- Week 6 Record: 10-5
- Season Long Record: 56-37
For more Week 7 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Despite the shorter slate, we have no shortage of great games to watch.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a divisional matchup on Sunday afternoon, and the Sunday Night Football game is a banger as well.
Two former college teammates, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, will go head-to-head on Sunday Night with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Miami Dolphins. I have picks for every game on the Week 7 slate, including a few trends to look out for this week.
Whether you decide to tail or fade these moneyline picks, you can come out as a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 7.
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With that offer in mind, here’s who I think will win every game in Week 7!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars +130
Jacksonville has won three straight games, and now it gets to face the No. 26 offense in terms of yards per play in the Saints.
There is concern that Trevor Lawrence (knee) may miss this game, but I’m going to take a shot on the Jaguars as underdogs even if he sits out. Jacksonville’s defense has been stifling the last three weeks, allowing seven, 20, and 20 points, leading to the team posting a +38 point differential.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Commanders -125
The Giants are the worst offense in the NFL, ranking dead last in yards per play and points scored. The team has yet to score more than 16 points in a game it has lost this season.
With Daniel Jones (neck) up in the air for this game, I can’t bet on New York to win.
Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Browns -125
Three straight road teams? Surely this won’t come back to bite me.
I am high on Cleveland’s No. 1 defense that just shut down the San Francisco 49ers in a win. PJ Walker (two picks, no scores) didn’t play well, yet the Browns were still able to win.
Now, they get a Colts team that struggled on offense with Gardner Minshew under center in Week 6. I think the defense for the Browns gets it done in Week 7.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills -395
The Patriots have scored the second-fewest points in the NFL, and they have no answers – even trying Malik Cunningham in packages against the Raiders in Week 6.
The Bills didn’t play well in Week 6, but they still found a way to beat the New York Giants. I think they can handle the Patriots in this matchup.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -155
The Lions are arguably the hottest team in the NFL – ranking No. 4 in offensive yards per play and No. 6 in yards per play allowed – but I think they’ll fall on the road this week.
As an underdog – or a favorite of three or fewer – Lamar Jackson is 17-4 against the spread in his NFL career. I trust him and John Harbaugh to get this win in Week 7.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Raiders -155
Justin Fields (thumb) is doubtful to play this week, and I don’t trust undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent to get the Bears a win – even at home – this week.
The Raiders have quietly played some good football as of late, winning back-to-back close games against the Packers and Patriots to move to 3-3 on the season. I’ll back Vegas to win a third straight.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers -130
I have been low on the Falcons all season long because of Desmond Ridder, and he really blew the team’s Week 6 game with multiple fourth-quarter interceptions.
The Buccaneers did not look great against the Detroit Lions, but I trust Baker Mayfield (I can’t believe I just wrote that) more than Ridder. The Bucs win an ugly game at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Rams -166
Los Angeles has impressed this season, and even with Kyren Williams (ankle) possibly out for this game, I think the Rams can attack this Steelers defense.
With Cooper Kupp back, the passing attack is strong for L.A., and the Steelers have allowed the 12th most net yards per pass attempt this season.
I also just don’t trust this Pittsburgh offense which ranks 30th in scoring this season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -345
This is a prime bounce-back spot for Seattle at home after losing to Cincinnati in Week 6.
The Seahawks should be able to score against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the sixth most points in the NFL this season. After beating Dallas, Arizona has come back to earth, getting outscored 95-45 over its last three games (all losses).
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Packers -115
It’s impossible to bet on this Denver Broncos team, which is 0-5-1 against the spread and 0-3 ATS at home this season.
Jordan Love and the Packers are coming off a bye week, which should help this team not only get healthy but fix some of the issues it has had on offense.
I’m fading Denver until further notice, especially with Russell Wilson coming off his worst game of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -245
Kansas City has not been extremely sharp on offense, but it hasn’t lost since Travis Kelce returned in Week 2 from a knee injury.
The Chargers entered Week 6 allowing the third-most yards per play in the NFL, so I’m not sold on them slowing down this Kansas City offense.
Also, Patrick Mahomes is 27-3 against the AFC West in his career. He’s not losing this game at home.
Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles -125
Since Nick Sirianni took over as the Eagles’ head coach, they are an impressive 14-7 at home.
Miami’s offense has been elite this season, but the team struggled in its biggest test of the season against Buffalo – also a road game.
I don’t think the Dolphins go into Philly and pull off the upset. This is a bounce-back spot for Philly after losing to the Jets in Week 6.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -290
I am worried about San Francisco’s offense if Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are both out, but the Vikings’ offense struggled without Justin Jefferson against a terrible Bears defense.
I don’t think Minnesota will be able to put up the points necessary to beat the 49ers in primetime.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.