Week 4 of the NFL season was yet another positive one in my straight up picks, going 9-7 with a Pittsburgh Steelers’ upset on Sunday Night Football really carrying home the week.
Still, upsets by the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals – all as underdogs of eight or more points – really flipped this week.
Here’s where my record stands on the season ahead of Week 4:
- Week 3 Record: 9-7
- Season Long Record: 25-23
For more Week 4 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Week 4 brings yet another 16-game slate, with the first London game also on the schedule between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons. Can we extend this record to more than two games over .500?
Whether you decide to tail or fade these moneyline picks, you can come out a winner at DraftKings Sportsbook in Week 4.
New users that sign up with the link below will instantly receive $200 in bonus bets – and $150 in no-sweat bets – if they deposit and wager $5 on any game!
With that offer in mind, here’s who I think will win every game in Week 4!
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Detroit Lions -120
Sure, the Packers are 2-1, but they have some serious faults on offense with Jordan Love completing less than 54 percent of his passes and the team averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, the seventh-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions are the best team against the spread in the NFL since Dan Campbell took over, and I think they have the superior offense to pick up a win on Thursday night.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -162
I keep backing the Jaguars, but to be honest their offense has been awful the past two games. The bright side? They’re facing the Falcons and Desmond Ridder, who has struggled throwing the ball in 2023. Atlanta scored just six points in Week 3 when Ridder was forced to throw the ball 38 times.
The Jags are 4-5 in London all time, but I think this is a spot where Doug Pederson’s team turns things around.
Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bears +136
Both of these teams are terrible, ranking 32nd (Denver) and 30th (Chicago) in yards per play allowed this season.
I am going to take a shot with the home dog in the worst matchup of the season to date.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens +124
Want a crazy stat?
As an underdog – or a favorite of three or fewer – Lamar Jackson is 16-4 against the spread in his career. He’s also 9-4 straight up as an underdog in the regular season.
I’m not buying the Deshaun Watson resurgence last week, give me the Ravens to bounce back.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills -148
Everyone is super high on the Dolphins, and rightfully so, but I don’t think they beat this Buffalo team in Buffalo.
The Bills have quietly outscored their opponents 75-13 over the last two weeks and are 8-1 against the Dolphins since the start of the 2019 season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Steelers -155
CJ Stroud has been the best rookie quarterback so far this season, but this Steelers defense is legit.
Pittsburgh has absolutely shut down both the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns, generating turnovers at a high rate. I think Mike Tomlin’s group gives Stroud fits on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Vikings -180
Someone has to get a win in this matchup between two 0-3 teams.
While Minnesota is 0-3 on the season, the team has played three straight one possession games and has looked great on offense at times, ranking second in the NFL in yards per play.
I’m not sure if we’ll see Bryce Young back in the lineup for Carolina, but the team’s quarterback play has been far from good in 2023.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Rams -105
Styles make fights in the NFL, and the Colts blitz fewer than almost any team in the league, which is a good sign for a Rams offense that has struggled to protect Matthew Stafford.
Anthony Richardson (concussion) could be back in Week 4, but I think the Rams have played better football to start this season than they’re getting credit for. As short underdogs, I’ll take a chance on them to win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers +136
Derek Carr’s status could change my mind about this game, but even if he does play it’s going to be at less than 100 percent with a shoulder injury.
The Bucs did not look good against the Eagles, but let’s not forget that New Orleans blew a 17-0 fourth quarter lead in Week 3 to Jordan Love and the Packers.
I don’t mind taking a shot on the Bucs as underdogs against a team potentially starting Jameis Winston.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles -360
The Commanders were exposed in Week 3, scoring just three points in a 37-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
We haven’t even seen the best of the Eagles this season, yet they’re 3-0. This is a no-brainer Philly pick for me.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bengals -135
I don’t love trusting this Bengals offense that is dead last in the NFL in yards per play this season, but I think they’ll turn it around at some point.
The Titans were shredded by Deshaun Watson in Week 3, and they’re just 29th in yards per play on offense this season. I simply can’t back Ryan Tannehill over Joe Burrow in this spot.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chargers -210
There’s a chance Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) misses this game, and that would be huge for a Chargers team that ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season.
The Raiders were unable to beat the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week, and Los Angeles has a much stronger offense – even with Mike Williams done for the season. I’ll fade the Raiders until further notice.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -285
Call me crazy, but the Patriots’ performance against the Jets last week was not good.
The team barely pulled out a 15-10 win, and now it has to go on the road to face another tough defense in the Dallas Cowboys.
While New England’s defense may allow it to hang around in this game, I think the Cowboys will be too much at home for Mac Jones and company.
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -1000
Don’t bet on the 49ers at these odds (that would be nuts), but I can’t see them losing at home to Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals.
San Francisco has multiple double-digit wins this season, and the team is in the top four in both yards per play on offense and yards per play allowed on defense. The Cardinals – who thrive on running the ball this season – won’t have nearly as many running lanes against this front seven.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -410
The fact that Patrick Mahomes is only a -410 favorite (even on the road) against Zach Wilson is shocking to me.
The Jets can’t score, so I don’t know how they’ll hang around against one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -110
Saquon Barkley’s status could swing this game, but the Seattle offense has been humming the last two weeks.
Daniel Jones is also horrible in primetime in his career, going 1-11 straight up in 12 games.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.