The Road to 272 Bets marches on! 272 NFL regular season games, 272 bets.
After a hot Week 1, we've had two losing weeks in a row, but we're still sitting with a profit heading into Week 4. What more can we ask for? We finished 7-9 (-2.63 units) this week to bring us to 25-22-1 (+2.30 units) on the season.
If you're going to join me for the ride and tail some of my picks, I'd recommend doing so at Bet365. New users will receive $365 in bonus bets when they place their first $1 wager! Just click the link below to take advantage of this can't-miss offer.
Now, let's dive into my best bet for all 16 games set for Week 4 of the NFL season.
NFL Week 4 Best Bets for Every Game
Lions -1.5 (-110) vs. Packers
Entering Week 4, I still have a lot of concern about the play of Jordan Love. Sure, he has thrown seven touchdowns and only one interception, but he has a completion percentage of just 53.1% this season. Only Zach Wilson has a lower completion percentage than Love through the first three weeks.
Meanwhile, it's not just the Lions offense that has been cooking this season, but their defense ranks sixth in opponent yards per play, allowing just 4.6 yards per snap. If they can keep that up, they'll be a dangerous team for anyone to face this season.
I'll back the Lions to win and cover the short spread and we'll start to hear people wake up to the inefficiencies of Love's play.
Falcons vs. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 (-110)
The Falcons are quietly becoming a great UNDER team. They run the ball and throw short passes on offense, then play solid defense and hope for the best. Heading into Week 4, they rank 26th in yards per play (4.5) but eighth in opponent yards per play (4.7).
I also have concerns about their ability to run the ball in this game. The Lions shut down their run game in Week 3, and now face a Jaguars team that ranked seventh in opponent yards per carry last year and has matched that production in run-stopping this year, keeping opponents to gaining just 3.4 yards per rush.
Both offenses have also been terrible in staying on the field. The Falcons rank 27th in third down conversion rate (30.77%) and the Jaguars rank 29th at 29.73%. That's great news for UNDER bettors.
It's not exactly going to be a fun bet to watch at 9:30 a.m. EST on Sunday, but I think it's the right bet to make. Give me the UNDER.
Bears +3.5 (-112) vs. Broncos
Oh boy. Here I go betting on the Chicago Bears once again. It has burned me two weeks in a row, but this is a true toilet bowl of a game and the home team is getting over a field goal worth of points. I feel obligated to back them once again.
Your gut instinct may be that the Bears have been the much worse team this season, but if you take a look at Net Yards per Play, both squads have been almost equally as bad. The Broncos are 30th in Net Yards per Play at -1.5, while the Bears are 31st at -1.6.
Also, if there's any team that Justin Fields can get things going against through the air, it's the Broncos. They're allowing a mind-boggling 9.1 yards per pass attempt this season. Gross.
I'll take the points with the Bears and hope they can at least keep things close in what might just be the worst game of the year.
Rams +102 vs. Colts
The Colts are going to be live to win any game where they face a team that relies on running the football, like the Ravens in Week 3. Their run defense has been amongst the best in the NFL so far this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry.
Where they struggle is their secondary, giving up 6.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. That's going to be an issue when they face the Rams in Week 4, who rely almost solely on their passing game to get things done.
It might be time to sell high on this Colts team after two straight wins. I still believe the Rams are a better team than people thought they'd be this season.
I'll take Los Angeles as a short underdog on the road.
Eagles -7.5 (-110) vs. Commanders
I was not a believer in the Commanders this season and I think they finally showed their true colors in their 37-3 loss to the Bills in Week 2.
Things aren't going to get any easier for them in Week 4 when they take on the defending NFC champions. If I were a Commanders fan, I'd be concerned about their run defense. They have allowed 4.8 yards per rush this season, and now they face arguably the best rushing offense in the league in the Eagles.
I still don't think we've seen the best of the Eagles yet this season, so it's scary that they're still 3-0 despite not playing their best football. If they bring their "A" game against Washington, they're going to run all over them and Sam Howell will be in for a long game.
Ravens vs. Browns UNDER 41.5 (-110)
The Ravens and Browns have been two of the best defenses in the NFL through the first three weeks, so it only makes sense that we take the UNDER. Heading into Week 4, the Browns have allowed just 3.2 yards per play, the fewest in the NFL but 0.9. The second team on that list? The Ravens at 4.1.
The Browns have also thrived in stopping the run, keeping teams to gaining just 2.8 yards per rush, the second best mark in the league. That's going to be huge against a Ravens team that runs the ball on 53% of plays.
While I like the defensive matchup for the Browns, I have no interesting in betting on Deshaun Watson. He finally had a strong game against the Titans, but I don't expect that level of play to continue, especially against a Ravens secondary that's allowing only 4.7 yards per throw.
I'll take another UNDER in this game.
Saints -3 (-105) vs. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers will have some level of success this season when they play teams that allow Baker Mayfield time in the pocket to find his open receivers. The Saints are not that team.
New Orleans ranks fifth in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.1) and its pass rush had started to get home as well, averaging 2.7 sacks per game.
The Eagles showed on Monday night how much the Bucs will struggle when they face bad defenses after getting to face two bad defenses in the Vikings and Bears in Week 1 and Week 2.
Even if Derek Carr is out for Week 4, I still think the Saints can do enough offensively to allow their defense to win the game for them. If Carr ends up playing, we'll be sitting with a valuable ticket if we bet on them now while the line is still -3.
Bengals vs. Titans UNDER 43.5 (-110)
I still can't back this Bengals team until I see something from their offense. Yes, they finally got a win against the Rams on Monday Night Football, but their offense looked stagnant against a bad Rams defense, raining just 4.2 yards per play.
Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off a bad offensive performance as well, scoring just three points against the Browns.
It's hard to have much faith in either offense this week, as both teams rank in the bottom four of the NFL in yards per play. So, instead of backing a side, I'm just going to make the obvious bet in this one and take the UNDER.
Dolphins +2.5 (+100) vs. Bills
I think it might be time for us to start considering the Miami Dolphins might be the best team in the NFL. I'm not going to make that claim just yet, but we're getting close to that territory. If they beat up on the Bills on Sunday, then that might be enough.
Ahead of Week 4, the Dolphins have a net yards per play of +3.1. The next closest team is sitting at +1.8. Their offense is on a historic pace and their defense has been playing good enough to keep opposing offenses from being able to match their pace.
Meanwhile, despite the Bills collecting two lopsided victories in a row, they're just ninth in the NFL in net yards per play at +0.3. You would hope to see some better numbers from a metrics stand point to have confidence in them against top tier competition.
I can't wait for this game, but I have no desire laying points on either side. I'd set it closer to a pick'em than what the current odds indicate, so I'll take the 2.5 points with Miami.
Vikings -3.5 (-105) vs. Panthers
The Minnesota Vikings continue to have some poor luck, just one year after having luck on their side on an almost weekly basis. Despite being 0-3, they rank seventh in the NFL in net yards per play at +0.7. That's a better mark than teams like the Bills (+0.3) and Cowboys (+0.2).
Meanwhile, Carolina has been a tough team to watch. Its offense has no teeth and wasn't even able to post an impressive game against a porous Seahawks defense in Week 3.
It's time for Minnesota to get its first win of the season and I think the Vikings can cover the 3.5-point spread as well.
Steelers/Texans OVER 41 (-110)
"The Steelers defense is one of the best in the NFL" has been oft repeated for as long as I've watched football, and it's still being said by analysts on a weekly basis, despite it not being true.
Yes, they have one of the best defenders in the game in T.J. Watt, but their overall numbers as a unit are subpar at best. They're 21st in opponent yards per play (5.4), 19th in red zone defense (62.5%), 28th in opponent yards per carry (5.2), and 21st in opponent punts per play (0.06).
Totals this low are usually reserved for games involving elite defenses. This game is not one of them.
Let's also give the Texans offense credit. They have some bite and CJ Stroud has been the best rookie quarterback through the first three weeks.
Chargers -5 (-112) vs. Raiders
Jimmy Garoppolo's status is still up in the air, but it's not going to change my opinion on backing the Chargers in this game. There's no denying their defense has been bad, but their offense has been one of the best in the NFL, averaging 6.1 yards per play through the first three weeks, the third best mark in the league.
Las Vegas has shown flashes of competence at times this season, but I don't think the Raiders have the fire power to keep up with the Chargers offense, especially if it's not Jimmy G under center.
I'll back the Chargers to win and cover on Sunday.
Cardinals +14 (-108) vs. 49ers
The Arizona Cardinals were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they've certainly looked a lot better than that through the first three weeks, especially in their upset win against the Cowboys.
It hasn't just been luck for the Cardinals either. They have played some legitimately good football at times. In fact, they're eighth in the entire NFL in net yards per play at +0.5.
Sure, the 49ers might just be the best team in the NFC, but it takes a lot for me to lay two touchdowns worth of points on a team.
The question you have to ask yourself is if you think the Cardinals are as bad as their preseason projection would make them out to be, or is there something to be said for the metrics from their first three games?
I'm going to trust the numbers and back the Cardinals to cover the 14-point spread.
Patriots +253 vs. Cowboys
I'm getting aggressive with my upset pick for Week 3. The Cowboys were one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL heading into Week 3, and proved it by losing to the Cardinals as 12-point favorites.
Heading into Week 4, they rank 11th in the league in net yards per play at +0.2. The team right above them? The New England Patriots, ranking 10th at +0.3.
The two lopsided affairs for the Cowboys were more of a result of defense and special teams than it was a strong and dominating offensive unit. Now, they'll face a team that has just as good of a defense in the Patriots.
I also trust Bill Belichick a lot more than Mike McCarthy.
I'll back New England to win this game outright.
Chiefs vs. Jets UNDER 43 (-110)
The Chiefs might just have the best defense they've had in almost a decade, and the Jets defense continues to be one of the better units in the league. That's why I'm not going to rush to lay 10 points on the Chiefs. While the Jets offense has been horrid, their defense might just be good enough to keep the score to a single-digit deficit.
That's why I'm going to back the UNDER instead.
Even if the Chiefs offense does get the better of the Jets defense, New York's offense is so bad that it might not matter. The Jets are 31st in yards per play and 32nd in third down conversion rate, getting a first down on just 21.62% of third down opportunities.
This game could be an ugly one. With the total still in the low 40's, I'll take the UNDER.
Seahawks vs. Giants OVER 46.5 (-110)
As I said last week, the Seahawks are looking like fantastic OVER team and they responded by smashing the OVER by 20 points against the Panthers in a 37-27 victory.
Here we are in Week 4 and we're seeing another total in the mid-40's. I'll continue to bet the OVER in Seahawks games if totals are still going to be set at this number.
The Seahawks are averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but are giving up 5.6 yards per play on defense, the same amount as the Giants, who have also struggled defensively all season.
I'll take the OVER on Monday Night Football.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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