Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us, and yours truly is back to .500 on the season in straight up picks.
It hasn’t been the best two weeks, but an 8-5 performance on Sunday (0-2 on Monday though) last week helped bring our season-long record to 16-16. It’s hopefully only going to go up from here, especially with an interesting Week 3 slate that features several favorites of eight points or more.
- Week 2 Record: 9-7
- Season Long Record: 16-16
Upsets were the name of the game in Week 1, with underdogs winning outright in half of the 16 games. That cooled a little in Week 2, but dogs have still performed well against the spread this season.
Luckily in these picks, we don’t have to worry about the spread, we’re simply picking the winner. Here’s who I have coming out with a W in Week 3:
For more Week 3 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
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New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: 49ers -575
San Francisco is a 10-point favorite in its first home game this season, and I’m not quite sold on the Giants even though they did pick up a comeback win over Arizona in Week 2. The Cardinals aren’t supposed to be good, so it’s not like it was an impressive win.
With Saquon Barkley (ankle) looking like a game-time decision at best for Week 3, I think the 49ers have too much firepower on both sides of the ball for the Giants to handle on the road.
Plus, Brock Purdy is a perfect 7-0 in the regular season in his career.
Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Dolphins -270
Look, the Denver defense has been great in recent seasons, but after allowing 35 points to Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders, I’m worried about them in this game.
The Dolphins average a league best 7.3 yards per play this season and have scored 60 points in two games. Denver couldn’t beat Washington or Las Vegas at home, while the Dolphins won a pair of tough road games.
I think Miami thrives at home where Tua Tagovailoa is 15-4 in his career.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Ravens -355
A little bit of a chalky start in these picks, but for good reason. Baltimore is heavily favored in this game because Anthony Richardson (concussion) is likely going to sit out for Indy.
Gardner Minshew is a solid backup quarterback, and he helped the Colts win in Week 2, but Baltimore is a much tougher opponent than Houston.
I think the Ravens are one of the best teams in football right now after beating Cincy on the road last week, so I’ll gladly take them as massive favorites at home.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Titans +124
Styles make fights in the NFL, and this is a nightmare matchup for the Browns.
Cleveland just lost star running back Nick Chubb for the season, and the team’s running game has carried it early in the 2023 season. Now, the Browns have to rely on Jerome Ford to replace Chubb’s production against a Titans defense that is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry this season (No. 2 in the league).
Deshaun Watson is completing just 55.1 percent of his passes this season, and I’m not sold on him carrying this offense with Chubb out. The Titans have their own issues on offense, but they put up 34 points in a win last week.
I like them as an underdog on Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Patriots -135
I simply cannot bet on Zach Wilson, especially against Bill Belichick.
Wilson has been awful against New England, posting a passer rating of 50.6 with 693 yards, two touchdowns and seven interceptions in four games versus the Patriots in his career.
New England hasn’t looked back against tough opponents in Miami and Philly, so I think it gets its first win of the season in Week 3.
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Bills -285
Yes, Washington is 2-0, but the team has beaten the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals to get to that point – by a combined six points!
Now, the Bills come to town fresh off a dominant win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. I think Josh Allen and company should thrive against a Commanders defense that allowed 33 points to Russell Wilson in Week 2.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Lions -162
Atlanta has looked good to start the season while the Lions were upset last week, but I don’t love this matchup from a stylistic perspective for the Falcons.
Atlanta runs the ball a lot – fourth most attempts in the NFL this season – yet the Lions defense has been great against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry.
That means the Falcons may have to lean on Desmond Ridder and the passing game, which has been uninspiring through the first two weeks of the season.
We know Detroit can put up points, so I’ll back the Lions here to bounce back at home.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Saints +105
Don’t be fooled by Jordan Love’s start to the 2023 season, he hasn’t been as good as advertised.
The Green Bay Packers quarterback has six touchdowns to no interceptions, but he’s thrown for just 396 yards and is completing 55.8 percent of his passes.
Now, he has to take on a Saints defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play this season and allowed the seventh fewest passing yards.
New Orleans hasn’t been lights out on offense, but it may not need to be if Aaron Jones (hamstring) has to sit out another week for Green Bay.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -410
Jacksonville is my Survivor Pick this week, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company bounce back in a big way after failing to score a touchdown against Kansas City in Week 2.
The Colts put up over 30 points on this Houston defense in Week 2, and let’s not discount Jacksonville's defense holding the Chiefs to just 17 points last weekend. I think this is a prime bounce-back spot for the Jags at home.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Vikings -115
The Chargers defense has been awful this season, allowing 6.9 yards per play – leading to the team starting 0-2.
In Minnesota, the offense has put up some solid passing numbers, but turnovers have really doomed the team early on in 2023. I think that can change in Week 3 with Minnesota at home.
The Chargers only have two takeaways this season, and the team may not have running back Austin Ekeler for the second straight week. If the Vikings play as well on offense as they did against the Eagles, they should pick up their first win of the 2023 season.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -230
I backed Carolina in the first two games of the season, but it’s clear the team doesn’t have the offensive weapons necessary to compete right now with a rookie quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Seattle offense got its mojo back in a win over the Lions, putting up 37 points in an overtime win.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -600
If we know one thing, it’s that the Cowboys can beat up on inferior competition.
They’ve outscored opponents 70-10 so far this season, and now they get an Arizona team that is actively tanking.
The Cardinals blew a 20-0 lead against the Giants last week, and I can’t imagine they even have a chance to build a lead against this elite Dallas defense.
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Chiefs -700
The Chicago Bears have lost to the Packers and Buccaneers, and now they go on the road to face a healthy Chiefs team?
This may be one of the easiest picks on the board. Patrick Mahomes should feast against a Bears defense that is allowing the second most yards per play in the NFL this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Steelers +114
I don’t really love either of these teams, but the Steelers defense is elite and it showed that on Monday Night Football last week, scoring two defensive touchdowns.
I can't figure out the Raiders, who pulled off a nice win in Denver before getting blown out in Buffalo in Week 2. I’ll take a shot on a road dog on Sunday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Eagles -218
The Buccaneers have gotten off to a solid 2-0 start, but they haven’t exactly been impressive. Instead, they’ve beaten up on a bad team (Chicago) and had a ton of turnover luck (Minnesota) to win both games.
On the season, the Bucs are averaging 5.0 yards per play while giving up 5.3. I think the defending champs – who found some rhythm on offense in Week 2 – should win this game convincingly.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline Pick
- Pick: Rams +110
This may be the hardest pick of the week, since Joe Burrow (calf) is up in the air for Week 3.
If he plays, Cincy should be able to get a home win, but the alternative is the team starting Jake Browning – who has attempted one pass in the NFL.
The Rams and Matthew Stafford have looked good through the first two weeks, so I don’t mind taking a shot on them as underdogs on Monday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.