NFL Underdogs Remain Exceptional Bet Through Week 10

Everyone loves a good underdog story. From Rudy to the Bad News Bears, underdog stories are just better. As a sports bettor, my favorite underdog stories happen on the field. And they have been happening a lot this season in the NFL through 10 weeks. 

According to a tweet from Data Analyst John Ewing, NFL underdogs went 9-5 against the spread (ATS) in Week 10. This brings the season total for underdogs to 87-62-1 ATS or a 58% win rate. While this doesn’t mean that we should just start blindly betting underdogs, it does tell us that there is a positive trend to betting against the favorite. 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of the better teams to bet on as ATS underdogs this season. As of this writing, there are currently nine NFL teams that have perfect ATS records as underdogs but we’re going to focus on teams who have been betting underdogs on at least four occasions. That leaves out the Cowboys (3-0), Ravens (2-0), Rams (1-0), Bills (1-0), and the Packers (1-0). 

Tennessee Titans 5-0 ATS as underdogs

The Titans are the only team who has five ATS wins this season as an underdog. The interesting thing about the Titans’ covers as underdogs is that they are outright winning most of those games. The Titans are on a six-game straight-up (SU) winning streak and were underdogs in four of those games. They beat the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, and Rams in consecutive weeks as an underdog. The Titans are currently double-digit favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook for their tilt against the Houston Texans in Week 11. 

New Orleans Saints 4-0 ATS as underdogs

The Saints have two ATS underdogs wins in the last three weeks of the season and remain perfect covering against favorites. Unlike the Titans, the Saints’ underdog wins have been spread out over the season with the first coming in Week 1 as 3.5 point dogs to the Packers. The latest was just last week when the Saints lost by two to the titans as 3.0 point dogs. 

The Saints are currency +1.5-point underdogs for Week 11 against the Eagles. 

Arizona 4-0 ATS as underdogs

The one aspect about Arizona being on this list that confuses me is that they were even underdogs four times this season. The Cardinals have had some bumps in the road but I think objectively are one of the best teams in the NFL. They opened the season as +3.0 dogs to the Titans and proceeded to win by 25 points. The next time they were underdogs was to the LA Rams at 3.5 points. They won that game by 17. Next, three-point dogs to the Browns in a game they won by 23.

Their last cover as dogs came to the 49ers in a game the Cards won by 14 as 5.5 point underdogs. I am beginning to see a trend forming here. It appears that whenever the Cardinals are underdogs, they blow out their opponents. The Cardinals are -1.5 favorites on the road in Seattle this week. 

Vikings 4-0 ATS as underdogs

The Vikings aren’t winning many of their underdog games but they are keeping those games close. They are keeping all of their games close actually and have only one final score with a differential in double digits. This makes them a good bet as an underdog but dodgy as a favorite. They are +2.5 against the Packers this weekend so we will see if this trend continues.