NFL Weather for Wild Card Weekend: Forecasts, Betting Guide for Every Game

Weather is expected to play a big factor this weekend.

Dec 17, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; A general view of the grounds crew removing snow from the
Dec 17, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; A general view of the grounds crew removing snow from the / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Weather is expected to wreak havoc on NFL Wild Card weekend, with high winds, snow, and rain forecasted for half of the matchups on Saturday and Sunday.

We've already seen betting lines changes because of the weather and we could see even more movement as the final reports come in.

This won't impact Browns at Texans, Packers at Cowboys, or Rams at Lions. Those games will be played in a dome, and I'm sure the players are thankful for it.

Dolphins at Chiefs, Steelers at Bills, and Eagles at Bucs will be played outdoors, and weather conditions are expected to play a role in all three of those matchups, with Dolphins at Chiefs possibly being a historically cold game.

Below, we'll break down the weather report for all three of those matchups and examine how it could impact betting on each.

Kansas City Weather Report for Dolphins vs. Chiefs

This could be one of the coldest NFL games in history. The projected forecast in Kansas City on Saturday night is calling for the temperature to be 0 degrees Fahrenheit with a windchill making it feel like negative 17.

That's seemingly bad news for the Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have lost 11 straight games where the temperature at kickoff was 40 degrees or lower, including three where Tagovailoa was the quarterback.

Despite this, BetSided NFL betting expert Iain MacMillan is backing the Dolphins to cover the spread. His reasoning is they're one of the best running teams in the league, ranking fifth in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate. You can read Iain's full prediction of the game here and understand more about why he thinks Miami covers.

Buffalo Weather Report for Steelers vs. Bills

The total for this game dropped dramatically at the start of this week, moving from 43.5 points at the open down to the current total of 35.5 or 35, depending on the book. Why? The wind.

The game was postponed from Sunday -- where there is expected to be more snow -- to Monday, but the odds have remained unchanged.

The most recent forecast still projects for there to be snow on Monday -- about one to three inches -- including winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour. The temperature for the game is expected to be in the high teens to low 20s.

With such a widespread and low total, you may think the move is to back the Steelers against the spread. MacMillan is going the other way, backing the Bills at -10 points. He thinks the Steelers' abysmal offense (last among playoff teams in Net Yards per Play) and the Bills' resurgent defense (fifth among all teams since Week 10) will lead to a lopsided score in Buffalo's favor. You can read his full preview here.

Tampa Bay Weather Report for Eagles vs. Bucs

This game will be the least affected by the weather of the outdoor games, but there is some rain in the forecast, which is important to be aware of as you make your wagers.

There's a 64% chance of rain in the forecast at kickoff with a temperature in the mid-to-high 60s. Depending on the severity of the rain, that could impact the ability to pass, but the forecast isn't calling for anything like that.

BetSided writer Shelby Dermer instead points to the Eagles' injuries and their inability to stop the pass as the main reasons to back the underdog Bucs against the spread. With Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith all injured and the Eagles ranking 31st in the NFL against the pass, he believes Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin can at least cover the 3 points. You can read his full preview here.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.