NFL Week 1 Wild Wagering Trends
There’s no week of sports betting that’s tougher than the opening week of the NFL season.
What teams improved in the offseason? What teams got worse? Who will be the real contenders this season?
Considering every team has adjusted their roster at least a little bit since the last time we saw regular season NFL action, it’s almost impossible to predict how the first week’s slate of games will go down.
With virtually no statistics to base your bets off of for the opening week, some people will look to trends instead when trying to find a winner.
I would never recommend basing your bets 100% off of trends, there are few for Week 1 of the NFL season that you should definitely be aware of.
Don’t forget, WynnBET has lines posted for all 16 Week 1 games. Don’t wait to head on over there to place your bets.
Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 | OVER/UNDER 52
Defending Super Bowl Champions are 13-5-2 ATS in last 20 Week 1 games.
Your immediate assumption may be that the defending Super Bowl champions are overvalued when they play on opening night of the NFL season. After all, why wouldn’t they be?
They were just crowned kings of the league, they have the momentum, they (usually) have the hometown fans on their side, it’s a banner raising night. Aren’t they such an obvious bet that you then should bet against them?
It turns out that’s not the case.
The defending Super Bowl Champions have been great spread bets over the past 20 seasons. They’re 13-5-2 against the spread during that stretch.
The Kansas City Chiefs covered the 9.5-point spread against the Houston Texans in Week 1 last season, beating them by a final score of 34-20.
The Buccaneers are 8-point favorites against the Cowboys on opening night.
Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | OVER/UNDER 54
The Super Bowl loser is 4-17 ATS in last 21 Week 1 matchups
As good of a bet as the defending Super Bowl champions are, the Super Bowl losers from the previous year are even more extreme on the opposite side. The loser of the previous big game have only covered the spread four times in their past 21 Week 1 games.
The Kansas City Chiefs are taking on the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, in a rematch of last season’s AFC divisional round of the playoffs.
The Browns lost the game, but they covered the spread as 8-point underdogs.
The 49ers entered the 2020 season as Super Bowl losers and lost their Week 1 game to the Cardinals as 7-point favorites.
WynnBET has the Chiefs set as 6.5-point favorites in their season debut.
Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints +4.5 | OVER/UNDER 50
The Saints are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 Week 1 games.
As good as the New Orleans Saints have been over the past decade, they’ve been notoriously slow starters. In their last 19 Week 1 games, the Saints are a lowly 3-16 against the spread.
This week’s opening game will have a special twist to it, as they’ll play the Packers in Jacksonville, Florida. The game was forced to move to a neutral site due to Hurricane Ida.
With the change in location, the Saints moved from 3-point underdogs to 4.5-point underdogs at WynnBET.
Fading the Saints has been one of my favorite early season betting spots over the past few seasons. They've somehow gone 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games played in Weeks 1 and 2.
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) September 7, 2021
They're a 4.5-point underdog vs the Packers in Jacksonville on Sunday.
Jameis Winston will make his debut as the Saints starting quarterback, after longtime QB Drew Brees retired this past offseason.
If you’re looking for another trend for this game, the OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
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