After a week off of upset picks due to the Thanksgiving Day slate, the BetSided team is back with some hot takes and picks for Week 13.
On the season, the team is 24-20-1 in straight up upsets, and we're looking to add to that total with several divisional games on the docket.
Here’s who we are backing in this week’s slate, with odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
Detroit Lions (+245) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Lions will finally get their first win of the season. Dan Campbell has decided to start running the ball at an extremely high rate, calling for a run in 50.94% of plays over their last three games. That strategy should work well this week as they face a Vikings team that is dead last in opponent yards per carry, allowing an average of 4.8.
Weird things happen in divisional games, and enough things lean in the Lions’ favor for me to take a shot on their moneyline this week. -- Iain MacMillan
New England Patriots (+130) at Buffalo Bills
Out of all the teams in the AFC, the New England Patriots are the hottest. They have won six games in a row behind Mac Jones and one of the toughest defenses in the league. Buffalo has struggled to be dominant this year and hasn’t been consistent over the last month. While the Bills got a good win against the Saints on Thanksgiving, they still have a lot to prove.
New England is allowing less than seven points per game over its last three games. Josh Allen will feel a lot of pressure in this game, while Mac Jones will be able control the game on the other side. The Patriots will be prepared for a big AFC East showdown, but I can’t trust the Bills in this same spot. -- Donnavan Smoot
I love the Patriots in this spot, as they’ve shown all year that they have one of the best defensive units in the NFL.
Josh Allen has been inconsistent at times this season, and Buffalo has already put up a few clunkers on the season. You can’t afford to be off your game against this New England defense, and Bill Belichick’s crew is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season.
Don’t be surprised if the Patriots end up winning the division. -- Peter Dewey
Pittsburgh Steelers (+175) vs. Baltimore Ravens
I have to give some credit to FanSided Senior NFL Insider Matt Verderame for bringing this to my attention on the latest episode of “Stacking the Box,” but the Steelers have been one of the few puzzles that’s been difficult for Lamar Jackson to solve throughout his career.
In four games, he’s only completed 57.9% of his passes and thrown for an average of 95.3 passing yards/game against Pittsburgh. Granted, both defenses this year have struggled mightily, but that’s a decent sample of games indicative of the Steelers giving Jackson trouble.
The Steelers are coming off a 41-10 ass-kicking to the Bengals on the road and will return home highly motivated to remain competitive and get back over .500. Meanwhile, the Ravens barely survived on Sunday Night Football despite four picks from Lamar vs. the Browns.
I’ll be backing Pittsburgh for sure at the +3.5 with the hook, but I also like them on the moneyline in a tight one. -- Ben Heisler
NFL Upset Picks to Date:
LAST WEEK: N/A
SEASON RECORD: 24-20-1