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Patriots vs. Dolphins Updated Odds and Prediction: What Bettors Need to Know

By Matt De Saro

The New England Patriots have a very slim chance to regain the No. 1 seed in the AFC but have to beat the Dolphins first.
The New England Patriots have a very slim chance to regain the No. 1 seed in the AFC but have to beat the Dolphins first. / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
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We finally entering Week 18 of the NFL season. This means that some games are incredibly important to playoff berths while others games are just going through the motions. This game definitely falls in the latter category with the Patriots locked into a playoff spot and the Dolphins already eliminated. 

While the Dolphins' season is essentially over, they can still play spoiler to the Patriots in some way. Because of the way that the AFC playoff seeding currently sits, the Patriots still have a chance to crawl back into the No. 1 seed and earn a coveted first-round bye. However, to do so, NE would need a lot of pieces to fall in place. The Chiefs would have to lose to the Broncos, the Titans would have to lose to the Texans and the Bills need to get beat by the Jets.  So, the Patriots need to win and for three upsets to occur in the same week. Stranger things have happened but I wouldn’t bet on this outcome. 

So does that mean that the Patriots will be resting starters? Or will they come out and play this Week 18 game as if it were any other week?

Here are the updated odds for this AFC East showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Updated Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Patriots: -6.5 (-110) 
  • Dolphins: +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Patriots: -280
  • Dolphins: +225

Total:

  • 40 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • The Patriots are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games. 
  • The OVER is 8-4 in the Patriots’ last 12 games. 
  • The Patriots are 8-2 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games. 
  • The Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Dolphins. 
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. 
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the Dolphins' last nine games. 
  • The Dolphins are 5-0 SU in their last five home games. 

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick

As I wrote earlier in the week, I believe that it will be business as usual for Bill Belichick and Co. I expect him to treat this like any other game and start his starters. That is unless the Patriots open up a big lead. At that point, I think the Pats will be smart enough to roll their second-stringers out to play. This will be bad news for a Dolphins team looking to end their season on a high note. 

The Dolphins were so close to making the playoffs after a 1-7 start but stumbled badly at the finish line last week when they got destroyed 34-3 by the Titans. Their offense was awful and barely avoided a shutout. Meanwhile, their defense completely fell apart and had no answer to a Titans’ offense without their best player. 

As nothing has changed in the last few days, neither has my opinion on the outcome here. I think there is a reasonable chance that the Dolphins have had it after last week and could be in danger of getting crushed again by a Top 10 scoring offense in Week 18. If this was any other team with any other coach I would be on the dogs to cover, but Belichick won't take any chances to end the season with a loss to a division rival. 

Pick: New England Patriots -6.5 (-110)

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