If you're wondering where the public is leaning when betting on the Super Bowl, just know that they love the Kansas City Chiefs.
According to Covers' Jason Logan, the Chiefs are drawing 61 percent of the against the spread picks for Super Bowl 58 against the San Francisco 49ers. That's a bad sign for them, as teams that have drawn more than 60 percent of the pick are just 1-3 ATS this postseason and 5-10 ATS since the 2018-19 season.
Kansas City is an underdog in Super Bowl 58, and while the team has experience in the Super Bowl -- and as a playoff underdog -- the public consensus being so high on Kansas City certainly isn't what some bettors are hoping to see.
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49ers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs after the line moved last week.
Patrick Mahomes has been elite as an underdog in his NFL career, going 10-1-1 against the spread and 9-3 straight up. He's also won his last three games as an underdog in the playoffs, including two this season (against Buffalo and Baltimore).
The other one? Last season's Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles. Mahomes won that outright to capture his second Lombardi Trophy with Kansas City.
Fading the public can be a profitable strategy, but in a game like this bettors may be better off going with their gut pick. Everyone is going to have a bet for the Super Bowl, but sometimes it's best to place a wager and stick with it, no matter what other people say.
For what it's worth, our NFL expert Iain MacMillan does like the 49ers to win and cover, although he got them as just two-point favorites. He shared his breakdown in his Road to 272 bets:
It may seem stupid to some people to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. Let's all take a step back from these past two games, for both teams, and think about this season as a whole.
The 49ers, for the majority of the 2023 NFL campaign, was the best team in the NFL and if you didn't think they were the best, you would have slot them in at No. 2 behind only the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't just because of their record either. Let's look at where they rank in some key offensive metrics:
- Net Yards per Play: 1st
- EPA per Play: 1st
- Success rate: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Dropback success rate: 1st
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Rush success rate: 2nd
- Average scoring margin: 2nd
- Red zone offense: 1st
- Third down offense: 3rd
Those are some pretty solid numbers, if I do say so myself. They rank first offensive in just about every single category. Defensively, they're a little bit closer to the middle of the pack, but they still have allowed the third fewest points per game.
Let's also remember that they have the best weapon possible to attack the Chiefs' defensive weakness. Kansas City has allowed teams to run the ball against them all season, ranking 25th in opponent yards per carry, 28th in opponent rush EPA and 23rd in opponent rush success rate. For some reason, the Ravens refused to run the football against them in the AFC Championship and it cost them.
Now, the 49ers have a chance to sick Christian McCaffrey on them. He may just drag this team to victory.
Is it concerning that they'll face this era's version of the GOAT in Patrick Mahomes? Yes. Is how the 49ers have come out in the first half in each of their two playoff games something to worry about? Yes.
With that being said, the 49ers have been the best team in the NFL this season but yet are only 1.5-point favorites. We need to base our evaluation off a full season of games, not just the latest two.
I'll bet on the 49ers to get their revenge and win the franchise's first Super Bowl since 1994.
That's a pretty good argument for the 49ers. No matter how you plan to bet on the Super Bowl, make sure to take advantage of FanDuel's promo offer!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.