Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 5 Picks for Every Game

It feels like it was just yesterday when we were preparing for the opening week of the NFL season, now here we are locking in our bets for Week 5. Time flies!

We got back on the right side of things in Week 4, finishing 8-7-1 (+0.39 units) for a slight profit. It wasn't a huge week, but in gambling, if you ain't losing, you're winning. We now sit at 33-29-2 (+2.69 units) for the season.

As always, you can check out the rules for the Road to 272 Bets in the Week 1 edition of the article here. You can also see my verified record for the season so far on my BetStamp account here.

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For the first time this season we have BYE weeks with the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers out of action. That means we have just 14 games to watch and bet on in Week 5. Let's dive into my best bet for each one.

NFL Week 5 Best Bets for Every Game

Bears at Commanders OVER 44.5 (-105)

I can't believe we have to watch this toilet bowl of a game on Thursday Night Football, so I'm going to do my best while watching to remind myself that football is football and I would've done anything to watch this matchup in the middle of July.

With that being said, I'm going to take the OVER. Neither defense has been good this season and the Bears defense has been especially bad. The Commanders are giving up 5.6 yards per play this season while the Bears are giving up 6.1, the second worst in the NFL.

The Commanders also have specifically had issues stopping the run, ranking 26th in opponent yards per carry giving up 4.5 yards per rush. That's good news for the Bears offense, who has been effective running the ball, ranking fifth in yards per carry, averaging 4.7 yards per rush.

I think the best way to enjoy this game might be to just sit back and root for points.

Bills -5.5 (-108) vs. Jaguars

I'm not huge believer in the Bills right now. Despite winning their last three games by a plethora of points, some of their underlying statistics are concerning. Most notably, they're allowing teams to gain 6.3 yards per carry against them, the most in the NFL.

Fortunately for them, the Jaguars aren't an effective team at running the football, ranking 26th in yards per carry and 27th in EPA per rush. Trevor Lawrence also hasn't shown his best stuff last season and I felt even their win against the Falcons wasn't as dominant as the final score indicated. I need to see more from Jacksonville before I'm willing to bet on the Jags.

I'll take the Bills to win and cover in this spot.

Saints at Patriots UNDER 39.5 (-110)

This game is the toughest of the week to handicap, in my opinion. On paper, the Saints should have a relatively good offense that can move the ball downfield. Alvin Kamara is back in the lineup, they have Chris Olave, and some solid play at quarterback, but yet they can't get any kind of momentum. They're averaging just 4.4 yards per play which ranks 29th in the NFL.

Then there's the Patriots offense, which has performed better at times than the Saints, but still has no real weapons and is now dealing with a quarterback controversy.

So, who do we bet on? I think we should just bank on good defense and take the UNDER.

The UNDER is has hit in 10 straight games for the Saints and a lot of them haven't even been close. The two defenses enter the game ranking sixth and eighth in opponent yards per play, giving up 4.7 and 4.8 yards respectively. They both also rank in the top half of the league in third down and red zone defense, both great aspects to have when you bet an UNDER.

Let's root for defense in this one.

Dolphins -10.5 (-110) vs. Giants

There is no world in which I can bet on the Giants to cover the spread in this game. They have looked like one of the worst teams I've watched in my life up to this point this season.

Now, they have to take on a Miami offense that's averaging a blistering 8.0 yards per play. Is there any world where the Giants offense that has scored a combined 15 points in the three games they didn't play the Cardinals, can keep up with the Dolphins? Absolutely not.

The Dolphins do have some holes on defenses that were shown to the world this past week against the Bills, but that doesn't matter. The Giants wouldn't be able to move the ball against a college defense at this point.

Dolphins might win by 50 points for the second time this season.

Ravens -4.5 (-110) at Steelers

The Steelers are in disarray this season while the Ravens are thriving. This might just be my favorite bet of the week.

If we look at net yards per play, the Ravens enter Week 5 ranking third at +1.5. Only the Dolphins (+2.3) and 49ers (+1.8) rank better in that stat. Meanwhile, the Steelers are down at 30th with a net yards per play of -1.1. That's ugly.

The Steelers, as has been the case for years now, continue to not be able to stop the run. They're allowing teams to gain 4.7 yards per carry against them, which is the fifth most in the NFL. Now, they have to face a Ravens team who runs the ball on 54.51% of plays, the most in the league. Also, 45.15% of their total offensive yards gained this season has come on the ground, the second most behind only Cleveland.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Ravens win this one in a rout.

Lions -9 (-110) vs. Panthers

I didn't know what to think about the Detroit Lions through the first few weeks, but I think it's about time for us to accept this team as every bit as good as their preseason hype. They're fourth in the NFL in net yards per play (+1.2) through the first four weeks and now they're coming off a mini-BYE after disposing of the Packers on Thursday Night Football.

The Panthers, on the other hand, are bad. Even their defense, which I had high hopes for heading into the season, has been abysmal. Most notably, they rank dead last in the NFL in run defense EPA while giving up 4.7 yards per rush.

Now, they face a Lions team whose rushing attack has improved every week and is coming off a performance where they gained 4.9 yards per carry against the Packers.

I'm not afraid to lay the big spread on the Lions in this one.

Falcons -1.5 (-104) vs. Texans

The last two weeks for the Falcons have been bad to say the least, but I think this is a good buy low spot on them against a Texans team that's getting a lot of hype lately. There's no question that Desmond Ridder needs to get better, but not enough people are talking about how good the Falcons' defense has been this season.

Heading into Week 5, they rank fifth in the league in opponent yards per play (4.7), only the Ravens, Browns, 49ers and Lions are allowing fewer yards per snap. If you're interested in some more advanced analytics, they're seventh in success rate (41%) and they lead the NFL in Rush EPA (-0.24).

The Texans have certainly improved compared to past years, but they're still a below average team on both sides of the ball that has to hit the road to take on a team that has a lot of offensive weapons and stout defensive play.

I'll back the Falcons as short favorites in a good buy low spot for the Dirty Birds.

Titans/Colts UNDER 42.5 (-105)

The run game for both of these teams is extremely important. 39.64% of the Titans offensive yards and 35.92% of the Colts offensive yards this season have come on the ground, that ranks sixth and 11th in the NFL.

Meanwhile, both defenses have done a great job stopping the run. The Titans lead the NFL in opponent yards per carry, giving up just 2.9 yards per rush, while the Colts rank ninth, giving up 3.8 yards per rush.

All this to say I think both defenses have a favorable matchup against the opposing offenses in this one. For that reason, I'm taking the UNDER and hoping for a slugfest.

Cardinals +3 (-105) vs. Bengals

It might be time for us to consider that the Bengals aren't a good football team this year. We can't continue to blame Joe Burrow's lingering calf issue as their only problem. Their defense has been abysmal as well, ranking 24th in EPA per play, 26th in success rate, and 25th in opponent yards per play.

In fact, if you look at total net yards per play, it's the Bengals who rank dead last in the NFL. That's right worse than the Panthers, Bears, Broncos and Giants and it's not even close. The second worst team in net yards per play is the Giants at -1.3, then it's the Bengals who come in at -1.7.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, are the complete opposite and may be better than we think. They're 14th in net yards per play at -0.1 and they've showed flashes of great football this season. Joshua Dobbs has already shown to be a serviceable quarterback, ranking 17th in the league in adjusted EPA per play. In case you're curious, Joe Burrow ranks 31st.

Rams +185 vs. Eagles

This is my upset pick of the week. I think the Los Angeles Rams are a great bet to hand the defending NFC champions their first loss of the season. Despite being 4-0, the Eagles haven't looked like the same team they were last year.

The Eagles are 10th in net yards per play (+0.4), 10th in EPA/play on offense, and 18th in EPA/play on defense. They aren't a bad team by any means, but they're a lot more susceptible to loss than they were last season.

The Rams, by comparison, rank eighth, eighth, and 20th in the above mentioned stats. Yes, their defense has a red flag for this squad, but one positive about that unit is they're second in the NFL in opponent third down conversion. Teams are converting third downs into first downs just 26.67% of the time. Being able to get off the field on third down can help a defense overcome a lot of shortcomings in other areas.

With this being a home game for the Rams, I think they're live to win this one outright and pull off the upset.

Vikings +5.5 (-110) vs. Chiefs

I was tempted to make this game my upset pick of the week, but I opted to just take the points and hope for the best.

The Vikings finally got their first win of the season, but I think they're going to get more wins soon. Heading into Week 5, they're fifth in the NFL in net yards per play at +1.2. Only the Dolphins, 49ers, Ravens and Lions rank higher in net yards per play. Notice how I didn't mention the Chiefs in that list. They're right behind the Vikings with a net yards per play of +1.0.

I have some concerns about the Chiefs offense. Their receivers had a terrible game against the Lions on opening night, they put up only 17 points on the Jaguars in Week 2, and then almost allowed the Jets to come back and beat them in Week 4. Yes, they put up 41 points on the Bears in Week 3, but that's the Bears we're talking about.

I think the Vikings talent on offense can keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. I'll take the points with Minnesota at home.

Jets +115 at Broncos

I'm taking a second upset winner this week, but it's not as bold of a call. I might just fade the Broncos every single week for the rest of the season. Their defense is historically bad. Seriously.

Yes, Zach Wilson playing against them this week is sort of a twisted game between a completely stoppable force and an exceptionally easy to move object, but I'm going to side with the former. We know the Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL and we also know the Broncos offense has been suspect at times this season.

It's going to be hard for the Broncos to beat any team this season if their defense continues to be absolutely horrendous so I have no desire to be on them in any form or fashion.

I'll take the Jets to win outright.

49ers -3.5 (-105) vs. Cowboys

Finally, we're treated to a true marquee prime-time football matchup when the San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys. If you read my fraud ranking last week, you probably know which way I'm betting this one.

Yes, the Cowboys are winning games by an average of 20.8 points, but some underlying numbers show they aren't as good as their box scores have shown. Entering Week 5, they're 13th in EPA per play on offense when you exclude turnovers (49ers are second). They also rank just ninth in the league in net yards per play at +0.4 while the 49ers are second at +1.8.

Don't get me wrong, they're a good team, but they aren't at the level of the 49ers, who have the analytics to back up their impressive box scores.

The Cowboys have also struggled to stop the run, allowing teams to gain 4.6 yards per rush against them. That's going to prove to be a problem against Christian McCaffrey.

I think San Francisco wins on Sunday Night Football in impressive fashion.

Packers -1.5 (-115) at Raiders

I haven't been high on the Packers this season, but I think they have a good matchup ahead of them this week. Their two biggest issues, in my opinion, is Jordan Love's completion percentage and their inability to stop the run. They rank dead last in completion percentage (56.06%) and 25th in opponent yards per carry (4.5).

Now, they face a team that allows teams to complete 70.73% of passes (27th in NFL) and averages only 3.0 yards per carry (31st). Las Vegas also ranks 31st in rush EPA (-0.203).

That's all great news for the Packers, who should be able to lean on their strengths without concern of their weaknesses being exploited.

Give me the Packers to get the job done on Monday Night Football.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!