Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 6 Picks for Every Game

We've now had two-straight weeks of profit with my picks, and we're continuing to take steps in the right direction as we enter Week 6 of the NFL season.

We finished 8-6 (+1.69 units) in Week 5, which brings our season record to 41-35-2 (+4.39 units) on the year. Let's keep the good times rolling!

As always, you can check out the rules for the Road to 272 Bets in the Week 1 edition of the article here. You can also see my verified record for the season so far on my BetStamp account here.

If you're new to the Road to 272 Bets, welcome! If you want to follow along, I recommend you place your bets over at BetMGM Sportsbook! For a limited time, new users will get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win! Just click the link below and sign up for an account to take advantage of this offer.

Keep in mind, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers are on the bye this week so we have just 15 games to watch and bet on. Let's just into my best bet for each one of them.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets for Every Game

Chiefs -10.5 (-108) vs. Broncos

I know Travis Kelce is dealing with an injury, but I'm still surprised this spread is only set at 10.5. I think this game is going to be an absolute blowout.

The Denver Broncos are allowing opposing teams to complete 77.27% of passes against them while giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Those are both the worst marks in the NFL by a wide margin. Specifically, when it comes to opponent yards per throw, the Broncos are giving up half a yard more per throw than the next worst team.

Now that secondary has to take on the best quarterback in the NFL and the reigning MVP. Yikes.

Toss in the fact the Chiefs may just have the best defense they've had in the Mahomes era and this is shaping up to be a long night for the Broncos.

Ravens -3.5 (-105) at Titans

I'm not going to put much worth behind the Ravens Week 5 loss to the Steelers. Dropped passes, penalties, and ill-timed turnovers made it just one of those games for Baltimore. In my opinion, the Ravens are still one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking third in the league in Net Yards per Play at +1.3.

Let's not forget their defense was dominant even in the loss and it's a unit that should dominate the Titans offense. Tennessee has surprisingly had some success throwing the ball this season, but the Ravens defense allows the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL at 4.4.

If I were to have one concern about the Ravens, it'd be the Titans' stellar run defense, but even with them being able to slow down the run effectively, I'd set the Ravens as closer to 5-point favorites so I'll jump on them at the -3.5 number.

Vikings -3 (-102) at Bears

This is already my favorite bet of the weak. I may just fall victim to betting on the Vikings every single week but I can't help it. Despite being 1-4, they continue to put up solid numbers week after week.

Heading into Week 6, they're sixth in the NFL in net yards per play, behind only the Dolphins, 49ers, Ravens, Lions, and Chiefs. Even if Justin Jefferson misses their Week 5 game, the Vikings have enough offensive weapons to exploit a Bears defense that's 31st in opponent yards per pass attempt.

Let's not let last week's Thursday Night Football game fool us into thinking the Bears are a half decent football team. They still stink. I think the Vikings win big in this NFC matchup on Sunday.

Colts +4 (-110) vs. Jaguars

The Jaguars have won two-straight games, but they've been outgained in both of them, including against the Bills where they out outgained 5.8 yards per play to 7.2 yards per play. As a result, this jaguars team is just 26th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play heading into this week.

I was high on them before the season but despite having a 3-2 record, I have yet to be extremely impressed by this squad.

Meanwhile, the Colts have put up better numbers and I think their actually a strong team in the short term with Garden Minshew under center. Don't get me wrong, they're deserving underdogs, but I'd set the number at under a field goal, so with us getting four points with the Colts right now, I'll jump on Indianapolis.

Seahawks +136 at Bengals

Speaking of teams who are winning games despite getting outgained in the yardage department, I'm still selling the Cincinnati Bengals. The Cardinals averaged 5.2 yards per play last week against them while the Bengals averaged just 4.8. Thankfully for Cincinnati fans, The Bengals won the turnover battle and Joe Burrow made the big throws when he needed to.

With that being said, that's not going to be enough to convince me to bet on this team in Week 5, especially as the betting favorite. They're still 31st in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.4, while the Seahawks are 10th at +0.3. Seattle also outranks them in Rush EPA/Play, Dropback EPA/play, and opponent Rush EPA/play.

I still need to see a lot more from the Bengals to be convinced to start laying points on this team, while the Seahawks enter off a bye and have impressed me in their first four games.

In my opinion, the wrong team is favored. Give me Seattle to upset the Bengals.

Panthers +13.5 (-105) at Dolphins

This is the "plug your nose bet of the week." It's gross, but I'm going to bet on arguably the worst team in the league to cover against a Dolphins team has been on a historic offensive pace. But, notice how I mentioned their offensive numbers and didn't say they're also on a historic defensive pace.

The Dolphins defense has been largely below average all season. They're 18th in opponent yards per play (5.4) and 22nd in opponent EPA/Play. Their offense has been good enough in most games that their defensive performance hasn't mattered much, but it's enough for me to not want to lay almost two touchdowns worth of points on them.

There's no arguing against the Panthers being a bad team, but they do have some bright spots. For example, they rank 13th in third down conversion rate and second in opponent third down conversion rate, forcing opponents into a fourth down situation in 29.82% of third downs against them.

I also think the Panthers' offense with Bryce Young has slowly improved each week. There's no chance they win this game, but I'll back them getting 13.5 points and hope the Dolphins don't score 70 again.

Saints vs. Texans UNDER 41.5 (-110)

The UNDER has now his in 11-straight games for the Saints and I see no reason no mix things up now. Their defensive is third in opponent points per play (0.250) and fourth in opponent yards per play (4.5). They're also seventh in red zone defense and third in third down defense, an UNDER bettors dream.

It's tough to get a full grasp of this Texans team. They're below average in just about every area. They aren't fantastic at anything but they aren't bad at anything either. You could convince me that they'd win any game, you could convince me they'd lose any game, and you could convince me their game is going OVER or UNDER. I truly don't yet know how to evaluate this team.

So, instead of overthinking it, I'm just going to stick with a bet that has cashed for bettors time and time again; the UNDER in a game involving the Saints.

Browns +5 (-108) vs. 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers may just be the best team in the NFL, but I hesitate to lay this many points on them against the best defense in the NFL. The Browns will enter this game of a BYE week and are 1st in opponent EPA/Play and opponent yards per play.

Most importantly, the Browns are allowing teams to gain just 3.2 yards per carry this season, the second-best mark in the NFL. That's going to be huge against a 49ers team that runs the ball more than any other team in the league. 54.4% of their called plays are run plays.

We'll see what we get from the Browns quarterback this week, but I think their defense alone is good enough to keep this game within reach. I'll take the points with the Browns.

Commanders vs. Falcons OVER 41.5 (-112)

I think the spread in this game is set right with the Falcons being set as 2.5-point favorites, so I'm going to take the OVER instead.

The Commanders are going to struggle to slow down the Falcons' biggest strength, which is running the football. They're just 27th in the league in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Overall, their defense is just 28th in opponent EPA/Play, so I think the Falcons can score, especially coming off as strong of an offensive performance as they had last week against the Texans.

Meanwhile, the Commanders are better offensively than they showed last week. Their depth of receivers on offense can exploit a lack of depth in the Falcons secondary.

The total is set at a low mark of 41.5, so I'll take a shot on the OVER and root for points.

Patriots vs. Raiders UNDER 41 (-110)

No game involving the Patriots should have a total in the 40s until further notice. Their offense has been the worst in the NFL all season, ranking last by a significant margin in EPA/play and 28th in yards per play at 4.4. Meanwhile, their defense is fifth in opponent yards per play and 13th in opponent EPA/play.

You can toss in the fact they're 28th in third down offense and seventh in third down defense.

To me, that sounds like an UNDER bettors dream but yet the total in this game is still in the 40s. That doesn't make sense to me. Give me the UNDER.

Eagles -6.5 (-110) at Jets

The Eagles keep winning football games but I'm still not convinced they're as good of a team as they were last year. At least, they aren't showing the same level of dominance they did in 2022.

But, the Jets defense specifically has also not lived up to the bar it set for itself in 2022. Their defense was good enough to have them in the mix in an almost weekly basis, but they're now just 18th in opponent EPA/Play and 15th in opponent yards per play.

Most importantly, they're 25th in opponent yards per carry, allowing teams to gain 4.5 yards per rush against them. That's bad news against the Eagles offense.

I think the Eagles can win this game by at least a touchdown, so I'll lay the points with them.

Rams -6 (-110) vs. Cardinals

After looking scrappy the first few weeks, the Cardinals may be reverting back to the level of play we expected from them this season. Josh Dobbs had his worst start of the season, and their defense has begun to show plenty of holes as well. For example, they're 29th in opponent completion percentage (72%) and 25th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2).

That's going to mean things are going to be open for this Rams offense, especially with Cooper Kupp back in the mix.

I have faith in the Rams at home in this NFC West matchup.

Lions -3.5 (-102) at Buccaneers

The Detroit Lions are a legitimately great football team. What a world! It took me a few weeks to figure out how I felt about this team, but the Lions have lived up to their offseason expectations through their first five games. They're fourth in the NFL in net yards per play behind only the Dolphins, 49ers, and Ravens.

What has impressed me the most about them is just how improved their defense is compared to last year. What's important for them in this game is to be able to shut down the passing attack of the Buccaneers' offense and I think they're up for the challenge. The Lions are sixth in opponent yards per pass attempt and 10th in opponent EPA per dropback.

The reason why that's so important is the Buccaneers are going to live and die with the play of Baker Mayfield and their receivers this season because their run game is non-existent. They're averaging only 3.0 yards per carry, the worst mark in the NFL.

Can the Lions offense outduel Baker Mayfield in this game? I certainly think so.

Bills -14 (-110) vs. Giants

The New York Giants are bad. Like, really bad. They're dead last in net yards per play by a mile, 31st in EPA/play on offense, and 29th in EPA/play on defense. I don't know if I can stomach another bet on this team for the rest of the season. How is this team playing in prime time yet again?

You also should feel comfortable betting on the Bills to cover a huge number. They love to win big and despite already losing two games, they have an average scoring margin of +15.8. They have suffered some devastating injuries on defense, but those won't hurt them in this game.

Bills might win by a million points.

Chargers +2.5 (-110) vs. Cowboys

I feel extremely justified in calling the Cowboys the biggest frauds in the NFL. They had the easiest schedule through the first four weeks and won largely on defensive turnovers and strong special teams play. Then, they played an actual good team in the 49ers and got exposed.

Now, they play the second best team they've had on their schedule in the early parts of the season in the Los Angeles Chargers and I expect another poor performance from them.

I'll take the points with the Chargers off their BYE week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!