Sunday Spread: Best Against the Spread Picks for Super Bowl 58
By Reed Wallach
After the long wait of an extra BYE week, Super Bowl 58 is here, pitting the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs against one another in a rematch of Super Bowl 54, the first title for Patrick Mahomes and this era of the Chiefs.
This game is being lined tightly, and there are differing opinions on the point spread between the BetSided experts. Some are riding with the underdog Chiefs to make it a third straight cover (and potential win) while others believe that the run is over for Mahomes and Kansas City and the 49ers will come through as small favorites.
Here are several bets from the BetSided team on the point spread for Super Bowl 58
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Best Super Bowl 58 Bets Against the Spread
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick
If oddsmakers are going to keep setting Patrick Mahomes as an underdog – especially in the playoffs – I’m going to keep betting on him.
In his NFL career, Mahomes has been an underdog 12 times, including three times in his last four playoff games.
He’s 10-1-1 against the spread in those games and 9-3 straight up. That includes two playoff wins as an underdog this season in Buffalo and Baltimore and the Super Bowl win against Philadelphia last season.
Why must oddsmakers not trust the best quarterback in the NFL?
The Chiefs also have an elite defense – No. 2 in the league in points allowed – that hasn’t allowed more than 28 points in a game this season.
The 49ers worry me, they are 0-2 against the spread this postseason and were just 3-10 ATS as home favorites this season overall. Now, they’re in a neutral site game against a team that has played in three Super Bowls in the last five seasons.
San Francisco’s defense looked very beatable, especially on the ground, against Detroit in the NFC title game. I don’t think the 49ers will be able to slow down this Chiefs offense enough to win this game, so why not take the points with Kansas City to give myself a little extra cushion?
Hopefully, Mahomes’ crazy ATS record comes through once again this week. -- Peter Dewey
PICK: Chiefs +2
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick
It may seem stupid to some people to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. Let's all take a step back from these past two games, for both teams, and think about this season as a whole.
The 49ers, for the majority of the 2023 NFL campaign, was the best team in the NFL and if you didn't think they were the best, you would have slot them in at No. 2 behind only the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't just because of their record either. Let's look at where they rank in some key offensive metrics:
- Net Yards per Play: 1st
- EPA per Play: 1st
- Success rate: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Dropback success rate: 1st
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Rush success rate: 2nd
- Average scoring margin: 2nd
- Red zone offense: 1st
- Third down offense: 3rd
Those are some pretty solid numbers, if I do say so myself. They rank first offensive in just about every single category. Defensively, they're a little bit closer to the middle of the pack, but they still have allowed the third fewest points per game.
Let's also remember that they have the best weapon possible to attack the Chiefs' defensive weakness. Kansas City has allowed teams to run the ball against them all season, ranking 25th in opponent yards per carry, 28th in opponent rush EPA and 23rd in opponent rush success rate. For some reason, the Ravens refused to run the football against them in the AFC Championship and it cost them.
Now, the 49ers have a chance to sick Christian McCaffrey on them. He may just drag this team to victory.
Is it concerning that they'll face this era's version of the GOAT in Patrick Mahomes? Yes. Is how the 49ers have come out in the first half in each of their two playoff games something to worry about? Yes.
With that being said, the 49ers have been the best team in the NFL this season but yet are only 1.5-point favorites. We need to base our evaluation off a full season of games, not just the latest two.
I'll bet on the 49ers to get their revenge and win the franchise's first Super Bowl since 1994. -- Iain MacMillian
PICK: 49ers -2
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.