Take the Bucs Now Before the Line Moves Back to 3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be playing host to the Los Angeles Rams at home in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. They’re at home with the greatest quarterback in NFL history on their side, a strong defense, and all the ability in the world to make a Super Bowl run, and they’re currently favorites by only 2.5 points on WynnBET. 

I am urging you to bet the spread now before it climbs higher.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers Are Great at Home

This year, Brady and the Buccaneers are 8-1 straight up at home. They’re 7-2 against the spread, and if you take out the Saints (who had their number all year), the last time the Buccaneers did not lose at home. In their home victories, the only game that they won by 3 points or less was in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Since Week 1, the Buccaneers have outscored their opponents at home 226 to 123. In the Divisional Round, Brady is 16-6 all time. At home in his career, Brady is 24-7. He’s far and away the winningest player in NFL history, having more playoff wins than 28 other franchises. His opponent is Matt Stafford, who entered the Wild Card round having thrown multiple interceptions in three straight games. 

And you’re telling me I can make money if Brady, at home, wins by only a field goal? 

Buccaneers and Rams Played Earlier This Year

I’m not completely counting out the Rams. If Stafford is able to play a clean game and we get “Good Stafford,” then this could be close. The two teams played earlier this year, with the rams getting the win 34-24. That was way back in Week 3. Brady carved up the defense for 432 yards, but the run game was non-existent. 

Brady, shockingly, actually led the team in rushing yards with only 14. That’s not something you would expect to see. Stafford did plenty of his own damage, throwing for 343 yards, four touchdowns, and zero picks. It’s going to take a similar performance to beat the Buccaneers, though.

Between Weeks 1-6, the Buccaneers defense was 14th in EPA per play, and 18th in EPA per dropback. The narrative early in the season was that this defense could be beat. Since week 7, that hasn’t been the case. The Buccaneers shored up their defense, ranking 4th in EPA per play and EPA per drop back since then. 

Brady is 5-6 all-time when given a playoff rematch from a game earlier that same season, but the Buccaneers are rolling right now, and there’s not way I’ll ever bet against the G.O.A.T. in a playoff setting. If they win the turnover battle, this game will be over.