The Mexico Open Odds and Best Bets (How to Bet at Vidanta This Week)
By Todd Moser
Looking back to last week, we didn’t hit the big prize as Patrick Cantlay decided not to show up for the weekend, but we did hit on the FRL prop and the hole in one prop.
This week, the PGA Tour moves across the border for the Mexico Open at Vidanta otherwise known as the Tony Finau Open. In its two-year existence, Tony has a win and a second and his heavily favored this week.
However, if anyone has been watching the golf these few past weeks, there’s only one guy putting worse than Scotty Scheffler and that’s Finau. Can he get enough putts to drop?
It’s been a year of longshots so far and I think the streak will continue this week. I’m also advising to cut your usual unit in half for this week and save it for the upcoming Florida Swing as I think this tournament, with its brief history, is too unpredictable.
Let’s take some longshots in the Lucky Seven (plus two) and a few stabs at the First Round Leader prop as well.
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The Mexico Open at Vidanta Picks
Tony Finau (+800)
Form: Not a great finish last week with a T-44, but his prior four starts were all T-22 or better including a season’s best T-7 at the Sony Open in week two.
Horse for course: Hard to beat a first and a second.
Stats: Let’s start with the bad. Finau ranks in the 100s in 13 putting categories including 169th in putting from four to eight feet. I think it’s time to bail on the new crouched-over putting stance. The good news is that he ranks fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th in driving distance, 10th in GIR, and 37th in scoring average.
Local Ties: None. Tony is a Utah man all the way.
Odds: Most definitely the prohibitive favorite.
Emiliano Grillo (+2500)
Form: Naturally, everybody’s picking Finau to win, but I’ll take a shot with Grillo. Not a great finish last week with a T-44, but his prior four starts were all T-22 or better including a season’s best T-7 at the Sony Open in week two.
Horse for course: Last year, Grillo finished with a T-5 and finished T-33 in 2022.
Stats: Grillo doesn’t drive it long, but he’s accurate. He ranks 152nd in driving distance but 27th in driving accuracy. He only ranks 89th in GIR but ranks 23rd in strokes gained putting. He ranks in the top 25 in 10 other putting categories and ranks fifth in total birdies.
Local Ties: None. The Argentine currently lives in San Diego.
Odds: Darn good odds for the tournament’s fourth favorite.
Stephan Jaeger (+2500)
Form: Jaeger has not played the last two events which bothers me, and he finished T-71 at his last tournament at Pebble Beach; however, the week before that he grabbed a share of the lead at The Farmers and eventually finished T-3.
Horse for course: Last year, Jaeger finished T-18 and finished T-15 in 2022.
Stats: Jaeger ranks 14th in driving distance, 34th in total driving, a lousy 102 in GIR but 28th in putting average, 15th in one-putt percentage, and 27th in par breakers.
Local Ties: None. The German actually attended UT- Chattanooga and still resides there.
Odds: What we gain in odds with Grillo, we lose with Jaeger.
Patrick Rodgers (+3300)
Form: An up and down year so far for Rodgers with the down part coming most recently with a missed cut and a solo 79th in his last two events. Prior to that, he played well finishing T-9 at the Farmers, T-24 at the Sony, and a T-14 at the Sentry.
Horse for course: Rodgers has fared well here with two 10th place finishes in two years.
Stats: Rodgers ranks 15th in driving distance but only 136 in driving accuracy, but he ranks 11th in GIR. He’s another guy struggling with the putter ranking in the 100s in 11 putting categories. He does rank 14th in final round scoring average.
Local Ties: None. The Stanford grad now lives in Palm Beach, FL.
Odds: These are probably the lowest odds we will see all year for Rodgers.
Brandon Wu (+4000)
Form: Wu did not play last week and missed the cut at Phoenix. He has two missed cuts in four events with his best finish being a T-18 in week one at the Sentry.
Horse for course: If not for Finau, Wu might be THE horse for course this week as he has a third-place finish last year and a T-2 in 2022.
Stats: Wu is another player who isn’t long off the tee but is accurate. He only ranks 152nd in driving distance but is 26th in driving accuracy and 13th in total driving. He ranks 25th in strokes gained approaching the green and 25th in total putting. He’s yet to miss from three feet.
Local Ties: None. Born in Northern CA, he also attended Stanford and now resides in Dallas.
Odds: Like Rodgers, these are pretty low odds for Wu.
Alejandro Tosti (+6000)
Form: In his three starts this year, Tosti has only managed a T-43, a T-70 and a missed cut.
Horse for course: In his only start here, Tosti finished T-10.
Stats: Tosti ranks seventh in strokes gained off the tee, 21st in driving distance but only 126th in driving accuracy. He ranks a dismal 163rd in GIR but ranks 22nd in putts per round and 21st in overall putting average. Interestingly, he ranks second to Patrick Cantlay in first round scoring average which is why he’s on our list below for FRL.
Local Ties: None. The Argentine is a fellow-Gator as he attended Florida and still resides in Gainesville.
Odds: Considering most probably don’t even know who he is, these odds are fairly low.
Nate Lashley (+6600)
Form: Man, talk about hit or miss, in his four starts, Lashley has three missed cuts but a T-3 at the Farmers three weeks ago.
Horse for course: Lashley finished T-39 last year and a decent T-11 in 2022.
Stats: Lashley ranks 28th in total driving, 18th in driving percentage but doesn’t hit it long as he ranks 102nd in driving distance. He ranks a surprisingly poor 150th in GIR but 20th in strokes gained around the green. He ranks 49th in putts per round and 34th in one-putt percentage and a respectable eighth in putting from 20-25 feet and also hasn’t missed from three feet.
Local Ties: None. Lashley attended U of A (Arizona) and still lives in Arizona.
Odds: Fairly priced as a longshot.
Last Man Out
Cameron Champ (+5500)
(Long)shot in the Dark Picks
Nico Echavarria (+22500)
“Ech” is a PGA Tour winner having won the Puerto Rico Open last year. He has played Vidanta finishing T-66 last year. I’m going with the pot odds here.
Alvaro Ortiz (+30000)
I had to take one homegrown product. Ortiz is playing in his home country on a course he’s familiar with. He missed the cut last year and had a T-42 in 2022; however, in 2021 he won The Mexico Open on this course by three shots on the PGA Tour Latinoamerica.
First Round Leader Picks
- Taylor Pendrith (+4000)
- Ryan Fox (+4500)
- Doug Ghim (+5000)
- Maverick McNealy (+6000)
- Alejandro Tosti (+6000)
- Justin Lower (+10000)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.