After four games ahead of Sunday's Week 12, we have a condensed Sunday slate, but that's not stopping us from firing in a handful of wagers to finish off a loaded Thanksgiving week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are making some changes to its coaching staff, firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, keep reading to see if our betting expert Iain MacMillian thinks Pittsburgh can stay in the AFC North race with a win at Cincinnati. As well, find out how we are eyeing another divisional battle between the Falcons and Saints in addition to the Broncos and Browns.
This is our weekly installment of the Sunday Spread! For MacMillian's full serving of bets, check out his Road to 272 here!
Best NFL Picks for Week 13
- Steelers -1.5 vs. Bengals
- Saints -1 vs. Falcons
- Broncos -1.5 vs. Browns
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Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction and Pick
The Cincinnati Bengals were already a bad team from a metrics standpoint when they head Joe Burrow, now Jake Browning takes over and I think we're going to see some extremely ugly football from them in the coming weeks.
Overall, they're 31st in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.3 and that's largely due to their defense. Their defense currently ranks 25th in opponent EPA/Play, 30th in opponent success rate, and 31st in opponent yards per play.
If you have Joe Burrow as your quarterback, you can get away with a bad defense at times. Now, with a backup QB, it's going to be a disaster.
Listen, I'm not a Steelers guy. I've been adamant they're the most fraudulent team in the NFL, but even I will back them as a 1.5-point favorite on the road against this Bengals team.
Saints vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick
Atlanta has been awful against the spread this season (2-8), and the team is turning back to the turnover-prone Desmond Ridder at quarterback.
The Saints are just 2-7-1 ATS this season, but they do force the fourth most turnovers in the league this season. I think they can flip the game in that department on Sunday.
Browns vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick
Dorian Thompson-Robinson may turn out to be a decent NFL starter (I personally believe in him and think he has a ton of talent), but this is a tough ask for him to go on the road to face a Broncos defense that is top 10 in EPA/Play over the last five weeks.
While the Browns are the best defense in football, the team is getting a ton of credit with a relatively limited offense on the road against a surging Broncos team that has notched three straight wins over the Chiefs, Bills and Vikings.
Russell Wilson is starting to turn it on of late, completing at least 60% of his passes in his last four games with no interceptions. He does still take sacks at a high rate, but in a game that should feature a ton of defensive pressure on both sides, I trust him more than DTR to avoid the costly mistake.
I'll take the Broncos to take care of business at home as the team continues its climb back into the AFC playoff picture.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!