Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today (Trust UNLV, Arkansas in Tuesday's Action)
Where should you be looking when betting the college basketball slate on Tuesday?
BetSided's Reed Wallach, Joe Summers and Peter Dewey have you covered with some of their top picks based on the odds at WynnBET Sportsbook for Tuesday's action.
Arkansas vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
I can't stop betting on Arkansas, who profiles as a dangerous Tournament team yet again after making the Elite 8 last season. This matchup should set up well for them as both teams struggle to shoot from the perimeter, but the Razorbacks have a significant advantage on the inside.
While Colin Castleton is the Gators rock solid rim protector (32nd nationally in block percentage), the Hogs have the size in the frontcourt to dominate inside.
The Gators struggle on the glass and also lack the playmaking to generate a ton of close looks from inside. More than half of their shots in SEC play is coming from beyond the arc, but they aren't hitting them, shooting below 30%.
Florida's shooting proximity is bottom 40 in the country, while Arkansas shuts down the inside as well. The team is physical and protects the rock (second lowest turnover rate) which can stymie the Gators transition attack. If Mike White's team is forced to try and execute in the half court, I don't like their chances against the size of the Razorbacks.
While Eric Musselman's team still has issues shooting efficiently, I love that they crash the glass on both ends, make their free throws and are physical with their opponents. This is a tough spot for the Gators who I don't think very highly of coming off an emotional close win over Auburn on Saturday.
I'm taking Arkansas to grab another victory.
PICK: Arkansas -1 -- Reed Wallach
All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 66-61-3 for +1.96 units.
St. Thomas vs. North Dakota Prediction and Pick
Just because this is going to be an ugly game, it doesn’t mean we have to make an ugly pick.
Both of these teams have no interest in playing defense, as the Tommies rank 314th in opponent points per game and the Fighting Hawks are somehow worse, coming in at 348th.
St. Thomas is top-100 in the country in 3-point percentage and effective field goal percentage, but it is 220th in possessions per game. It’s going to be hard for the Tommies to play at this pace, as North Dakota is 48th in the country in possessions per game.
The Fighting Hawks need to push the pace to make up for their poor shooting, as they rank 313th in field goal percentage and 266th in effective field goal percentage.
The average total for the Tommies’ games this season is 148.8, and it is 146.6 for the Fighting Hawks. While 149 may seem like a big number for two bad teams, they are really much worse on the defensive end.
If North Dakota can push the pace, I can see this game going over.
Lean: St. Thomas-North Dakota OVER 149 (-110) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
UNLV vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick
This is one of my favorite spots of the day and I absolutely love the Runnin' Rebels here. They're 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games, covering by an insane average of 17.5 points per game. Now they're underdogs to an underdogs to an underachieving Nevada team that they already beat? Yes please, sign me up.
With the 58th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per Bart Torvik, UNLV will exploit a poor Wolf Pack defense that ranks just 276th in defensive effective field goal percentage. In the first matchup, UNLV launched 32 shots from beyond the arc to take advantage of Nevada's 292nd-ranked 3-point defense.
They only made 12 of them, but spreading out a Nevada team that likes to run helps create open lanes inside for easy shots and also gives them opportunities for long rebounds as evidenced by the 11 offensive rebounds they generated.
My concern is that this could be a let-down spot for UNLV, but luckily it's a let-down spot for Nevada too. Yes, the Wolf Pack have won three in a row. But two of them came against San Jose State, whose 1-14 conference record is the worst in the Mountain West.
Before they had the good fortunate of playing the literal worst team back-to-back, Nevada was just 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. Even worse, the Wolf Pack are a disgusting 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home favorite while UNLV has covered in three of their past four as a road underdog.
I'm genuinely shocked the Runnin' Rebels are underdogs and I'm runnin' straight to the counter at WynnBET to bet them today. Give me UNLV +118 on the moneyline to send Nevada to 8-17 ATS on the year
Pick: UNLV Moneyline (+118) -- Joe Summers
Iowa vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick
It's hard to find a better team at home than Iowa since McCaffery took over in 2010. The team is 110-73-4 against the spread (ATS) in Iowa City in that time period, the best mark of power conference teams over the last decade plus.
However, this line feels like a bit of an overreaction after closing as a 5.5-point underdog at Ohio State over the weekend. While Michigan State's offense may be a bit overvalued, ShotQuality rates the Spartans offense as 66th in the country and believes their record is more like a 13-13 team rather than their actual record of 18-8, the offense is set up for some success against a porous Iowa defense.
The Hawkeyes are terrible on the defensive glass, bottom 100 nationally, and foul at an alarming rate in conference play. The Spartans have a physical front court with Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham that draw fouls at a high rate and as a team hit 80% of their free throws.
I believe Iowa is a bit overvalued in this spot, but I'm not rushing to back the Spartans given their poor play, I'd rather play the over, which I peg closer to 157.
Both teams are inside the top three in average offensive possession length in conference play and I see a ton of possessions and foul shots for each side. Further, another Iowa trend to keep an eye on: the team is 13-3-1 to the over at Carver-Hawkeye and are 15-5-1 as a favorite. In games that are projected to be played on Iowa's terms, the game typically flies over.
PICK: OVER 153, play to 154.5 -- Reed Wallach