Top College Basketball Picks and Predictions Today (Back Notre Dame, Auburn, Arkansas on March 2)
Looking to bet some college basketball on Wednesday night?
BetSided's Peter Dewey, Joe Summers and Matt De Saro have you covered with some of their top predictions in college hoops with all odds via WynnBET:
Notre Dame vs Florida State Prediction and Pick
Florida State was down nine to Virginia with just over two minutes left before an absurd comeback propelled them to its second win in 10 games. Now we get Notre Dame as only a 2.5-point favorite? Oh, baby! This is my favorite play of the day and I'll take advantage of every chance I can to fade the Seminoles.
This line just makes no sense. The Fighting Irish are 13-4 ATS over their last 17 while Florida State had failed to cover in nine straight before that Virginia win.
Notre Dame has the 30th-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country thanks to the 27th-highest three-point shooting percentage and should control the game from start-to-finish.
The Seminoles allow opponents to shoot 36.8% from beyond the arc, good for 320th nationally, so Notre Dame should rain three's from the heavens and I don't think the home team can keep up. Florida State is 215th in effective field goal percentage and 275th in defensive, and frankly I think name value is the only thing keeping this line so low.
Sometimes oddsmakers give us a gift and on this glorious Wednesday, they've done just that. Notre Dame has covered five straight on the road while Florida State has failed to cover in five straight at home.
Give me Notre Dame in a slam-dunk, auto-bet spot. Thank you oddsmakers for this generous present - I won't be returning it.
Pick: Notre Dame -2.5 (-110) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick
LSU has one advantage over Arkansas in this game and that is its size and how it uses it. The Tigers are an extremely physical team and have used that to body smaller teams and win games as a result.
While this has worked on lesser teams this year, I do not see LSU bullying this Arkansas team into a loss. For starters, the Tigers foul more than almost any other team in the nation with almost 20 personal fouls per game.
To break that down, the Tigers foul once in every 23.7 percent of their possessions and rank them 313th. That is not to say that LSU doesn’t have its strong points. Their defense overall is very good and rank 19th in scoring and cause the third-most turnovers in the nation at a rate of one every 22 percent of possessions.
And while all of that is quite impressive, the Tigers are still an 8-8 team going up against a potential Elite Eight team in the Razorbacks. After a slow start, the Razorbacks have won 13 of their last 14 games heading into tonight.
They are red-hot at the right time and have recently beaten Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky. Another semi-recent victim of this surging team was this very same LSU squad. Arkansas won by seven on the road when LSU was ranked No. 12. The Razorbacks are 23-6 and an impressive 16-1 on their home court. This team is also well-rested and totally healthy.
Pick: Arkansas (-5.5) -110 -- Matt De Saro
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction and Pick
Yes, Auburn is struggling and Mississippi State has been stellar at home, going 6-2 ATS in its previous eight games at Humphrey Coliseum. But this line is downright disrespectful.
The Bulldogs point of attack falls right into the hands of the Tigers. Mississippi State is built to score inside. The Bulldogs are in the fourth percentile nationally in 3-point attempt rate, which measures how many shots a team takes from the outside versus two-point shots. 70.7% of their shot attempts come from inside the arc, and Auburn is elite at defending that kind of offense.
Thanks to a long, rangy defense led by Walker Kessler and his 4.7 blocks per game (the most in all of college basketball), the Tigers are in the 99th percentile in defending two-point shots and allow opponents to hit only 42.2% of those shots. They've been even stingier over their last five games, allowing opposing offenses to make only 38.3%.
That interior advantage extends to the offensive end for Auburn as well. The Bulldogs have the 239th-best two-point defense as opponents are hitting 51.3% of two-point shots. Auburn has the 31st-ranked offensive rebounding rate and Mississippi State ranks in the 15th percentile in opposing field goal percentage on second-chance points, so even if the Tigers miss, they should give themselves enough extra opportunities to generate easy looks.
If I have a concern with this one, it's that the Bulldogs have the 18th-best free throw rate while Auburn fouls a ton and are outside the top 300 in opposing free throw rate. If the Tigers aren't focused, Mississippi State could live at the line and keep it close.
But I'm trusting Auburn to hold steady and bounce back from a rough stretch of play. The Tigers are still 18-10-1 ATS on the season and 17-8-1 as a favorite. I'll admit, they're 0-4 ATS in their last four as a road favorite and lost their last two outright, but the numbers are telling us the Tigers are a safe play.
Just this month, Mississippi State was a 6-point underdog to both Alabama and LSU. The Bulldogs were on the road, but Auburn is better than both of those teams even factoring in home-court advantage and this line should be higher.
Pick: Auburn -3.5 (-110) -- Joe Summers
Charleston Southern vs. UNC Asheville Prediction and Pick
When I say that the Buccaneers are the worst team in the conference, I mean it, as they rank dead last in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom.
Charleston Southern allows a shocking 56.0 percent effective field goal percentage this season, and it also turns the ball over at the second highest rate in the conference. There’s a reason this team went 1-15 in conference play.
UNC Asheville isn’t the class of the Big South, but the Bulldogs are fourth in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency in the conference this season. They already showed that they can blow out this team on the road, so I think things will be much easier on Wednesday.
KenPom projects this as a 12-point win for the Bulldogs, so we may be getting a bit of value at 10.5.
Lean: UNC Asheville -10.5 (-110)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.