Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Blue Jays Blowout, Mets and Twins Upsets and More on Tuesday)
There are 16 games in MLB on Tuesday, Aug. 23, which means there are plenty of bets to make, and a few matchups to really take advantage of .
The BetSided team has previewed every game for today's action, and Peter Dewey, Joe Summers, Iain MacMillan and Josh Yourish have a few of their top picks to give out for tonight's action.
We have a pair of upsets to consider as well as a pick fading one of the best pitchers in baseball. If that doesn't intrigue you, I don't know what does.
Let's jump into the picks!
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-185) | Yankees -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Mets: +112 | Yankees: -122
- Total: 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)
Taijuan Walker is working his way back from a bulging disc in his back, and August has been a rough month for him to say the least.
The veteran right-hander allowed eight runs in one inning of work against the Atlanta Braves in his first start of the month, and lasted just two innings in his last start due to the back injury.
However, he may not be the lesser option, as Frankie Montas has been brutal away from Oakland Coliseum this season. In 12 starts in Oakland, Montas has a 2.86 ERA. When he ventures away from the Coliseum? His ERA balloons to 6.34. That’s why the Yankees’ decision to trade for him at the deadline was a little questionable.
With New York, Montas has allowed 14 earned runs in 14 innings across three starts. There’s no way he can be trusted here, especially since he’s been jumped on for a bunch of runs early by the Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals.
After a down game on Monday, I think the Mets’ offense bounces back here. I don’t love Walker, but he did pitch six innings of three-run ball in his first outing against the Yankees in 2022.
LEAN: Mets ML (+112) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run Line: Brewers +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+152)
- Moneyline: Brewers +133 | Dodgers -143
- Total: 7.0 (Over -120 / Under +100)
Milwaukee’s offense has epitomized modern baseball over the past week. The Brewers are hitting .180, easily one of the worst marks in the league over that stretch, and yet they have scored the fourth most runs. They lead the league in home runs with 12 in the last seven days. They are also No. 1 in the league in strikeouts with 63, five more than the next closest team over that stretch.
The Brewers have needed their pitching staff to be good like last night, but have also relied on just one or two big swings. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and playing better against tough competition, but are still lagging behind the Cardinals.
Corbin Burnes’ last start came against the Dodgers and he went 5.2 and gave up three earned runs in the 5-3 Brewers win. This is Burnes’ first time facing a team in back-to-back starts, but two times this season he has he faced a team twice within three starts. Both times the second start was significantly worse. In May, he faced Atlanta twice in 11 days, he pitched six innings in both. The first outing he gave up one earned run, the second outing he gave up four.
Then he faced the Padres twice in 10 days spanning the end of May and start of June. His first start he allowed one run, his second start he gave up five over 3.2 innings.
Corbin Burnes’ cutter is clearly one of the best pitches in baseball, but it seems like teams can figure it out once they get more familiar with him.
Pick: Dodgers -143 -- Josh Yourish
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Odds, Prediction and Pick
- Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+100) | Red Sox +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Blue Jays -153 | Red Sox +143
- Total: 9.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Josh Winckowski (5.19 ERA) will get the start for the Red Sox today, and he's struggled heavily in recent starts. He's allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last seven starts, including vigin up six earned runs against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates in his last start.
That's not a good sign for the Red Sox, especially considering they'll eventually have to turn to their bullpen that ranks dead last in bullpen ERA (5.74) dating back to July 1.
Meanwhile, the Jays bullpen ranks second in bullpen ERA over that stretch (2.73), while also seventh in OPS over the same time frame.
All signs point to a Blue Jays blowout tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+100) -- Iain MacMillan
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Odds, Prediction and Pick
I had every intention of writing up an Astros blowout, but then WynnBET just had to hang +260 odds with the Minnesota Twins and I don't think I can resist.
The Twins are a better ballclub than they've shown the last three days, and the lineup still ranks 13th in OPS against right-handed pitchers this month while Houston is 11th. It's baseball, after all, and bad teams win as huge underdogs all of the time. Well, good teams can win as huge underdogs too.
I'll admit that Aaron Sanchez's numbers on the year are absolutely horrendous. The guy ranks in the second percentile in expected batting average, for crying out loud, but he's had an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 3.48 for two consecutive starts. That includes a strong 2.30 in his last outing, and Verlander has an expected FIP above 4.71 in two of his last four outings.
Odds of +260 mean we need to win this bet just under 28% of the time to be profitable. Minnesota can win this game at a higher percentage than that - the talent on the team still exists despite the last three days of woeful results.
If the Twins hadn't collapsed against Texas, these odds would be much shorter. Thus, I see value in taking a shot on Minnesota. I expect to lose this bet more often than not, but we've got to take swings in MLB and I'm ready for a moon shot today. Back the Twins to hand Houston a third straight loss behind Verlander as their lineup finally wakes up.
Pick: Twins (+260) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.