Betsided

Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Mets, Marlins, White Sox are Sneaky Underdogs on Monday)

By Peter Dewey, Iain MacMillan, Josh Yourish, Reed Wallach

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara.
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
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There are some fantastic pitching matchups in Major League Baseball on Monday, and that has led to some underdog value in the BetSided team's picks today.

Every day, we break down some of our favorite plays in Major League Baseball, and Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach, Iain MacMillan and Josh Yourish have some plays for the action on Aug. 15:

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-150) | Braves -1.5 (+125)
  • Moneyline: Mets: +137 | Braves: -147
  • Total: 8 (Over -105/Under -115)

Call me crazy, but I think the Braves are way overvalued in this spot, especially since Spencer Strider struggled in his last outing against the Mets, giving up four runs in 2.2 innings. 

Carlos Carrasco has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the start of July, posting a 1.69 ERA and 5-0 record while the Mets have won all seven of his starts. He was solid against the Braves back on Aug. 4, allowing just three runs on four hits in six innings. 

I know that Strider has been striking out batters at an insane rate, but I don’t think he deserves to be favored by this much against this Mets team. New York has been hot in its own right, winning eight of its last 10 games heading into this matchup. 

I’ll back the Mets as road dogs with Carrasco still pitching like one of the best starters in the NL. 

Lean: Mets ML (+137) -- Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-150)
  • Moneyline: Padres -133 | Marlins +123
  • Total: 6.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)

This is the lowest total on the entire MLB slate today and for very good reason. Both of these pitchers have had outstanding breakout seasons. 

Let’s start with the basic numbers, Joe Musgrove is 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA in 20 starts. He has 124 strikeouts to just 28 walks. Sandy Alcantara has made 23 starts and is 10-5, has a 2.01 ERA and 145 K’s to 41 walks. 

Now, we can get a little more in the weeds, which reveals some more advantages to backing Alcantara. 

Musgrove’s ERA has been steadily rising from 2.09 at the beginning of July to a high water mark of 3.00 and then back down slightly. That ERA is much more in line with his fielding independent pitching which is 3.35. Musgrove’s expected batting average is only slightly better than league average, in the 61st percentile. HIs expected slugging is .347, in the 71st percentile of the league. 

Alcantara however, just recently had his ERA go over two for the first time since May, and his expected ERA of 2.76 is in the top 10% of the league. His xBA is 82nd percentile, and xSlugging is 87th percentile. 

Alcantara is clearly the better pitcher and the rightful favorite for Cy Young in the NL. 

Pick: Marlins +123 -- Josh Yourish

Follow all Josh’s bets HERE.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run Line: Phillies: -1.5 (-115) | Reds: +1.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Phillies: -177 | Reds: +162
  • Total: 9 (Over -120/Under +100)

Noah Syndergaard has made two starts with the Phillies, but it hasn't gone all that well, allowing 17 hits in 11 innings and six earned runs on just six strikeouts. He now heads to one of the most hitter friendly parks, Great American Ball Park, to face a Reds team that does far better at home than on the road.

Cincy is 10th in home batting average this season, meaning it has far exceed its expectation when it is playing in front of friends and family.

However, the Phillies offense should stay hot at the dish (outside of last weekend against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball) against Mike Minor. The lefty has been a mess this season, posting a 6.24 ERA and a 6.75 FIP across 12 starts this season. Philadelphia is seventh in batting average against southpaws and are sixth in slugging percentage over the last month.

I think the Reds plate a few runs to help push this over the total in what should be a big outing at the plate for the Phils.

LEAN: OVER 9 (-120) -- Reed Wallach

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Odds, Prediction and Pick

  • Run line: Astros -1.5 (+125) | White Sox +1.5 (-150)
  • Moneyline: Astros -125 | White Sox +115
  • Total: 8.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

The Astros completely dominate left-handed pitchers, but today's game is a battle of righties between Jose Urquidy (3.85 ERA) and Johnny Cueto (2.91 ERA).

Surprisingly, when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers, the White Sox have the advantage. Dating back to July 1, the White Sox rank 12th in OPS vs. righties, while the Astros rank 14th.

One area that Houston has a significant advantage in, is their bullpen. It ranks fifth in bullpen ERA compared to Chicago at 14th.

So, with all of that being said, the bet to make in this game is taking the White Sox as an underdog in the first five innings. They have the pitching advantage and the offensive advantage, but let's take the bullpen out of the equation by focusing on the first five innings.

Pick: White Sox F5 +105 -- Ian MacMillan

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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