Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Twins Upset, Three Totals and Trust Mets on Tuesday)
There's plenty of Major League Baseball action on Tuesday, May 10, as we have 16 different games to bet on.
BetSided's Peter Dewey, Reed Wallach, Joe Summers and Matt De Saro have you covered with several picks for today's action, with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Pick
We’ve got one of the best UNDER teams in baseball taking on one of the best OVER teams in baseball in Atlanta.
The Braves are 16-13-1 on OVERs so far this season, but the Red Sox have really come up short in the runs department, going 20-9 on UNDERs through their first 29 games.
Boston is just 26th in MLB in OPS, and Kyle Wright could pose some serious problems for this offense as he has a wipeout breaking ball and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start all season.
Garrett Whitlock has moved into Boston’s rotation with the setback to Chris Sale’s rib injury, and he’s shown that he is just as dominant as when he came out of the pen, posting one of the best ERA’s in all of baseball.
I know that Boston’s bullpen is concerning (4.19 ERA), but I can’t ignore the value on the UNDER at +100 with these two pitchers on the bump. I wouldn’t mind a first five innings under either, but that is set at four runs with -115 odds.
Lean: UNDER 7.5 (+100) -- Peter Dewey
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick
While Mike Clevinger will be the story in this matchup, Chicago will also hope to get a stalwart of the rotation on track in this one with Wade Miley set to make his first start of the season. Miley has been on the IL through the first month of the season with elbow inflammation. He is coming off a strong season with the Reds, posting a 3.27 ERA and out performing his career walk rate (2.8 per nine innings).
However, he may struggle in his first start of the season against a formidable Padres offense. They are 18th in batting average against left handed pitching, but 12th in on-base percentage, highlighting that they draw a ton of walks which can chase Miley in his first start of the year.
I like San Diego's offense in this matchup, but I'm not sold on Clevinger just yet. He pitched 4.2 innings, throwing 95 pitches and allowing three runs. I'm more concerned about the Padres bullpen, which is 24th in ERA this season, holding off the Cubs offense as the starter continues to get stretched out.
I'll take the over with questions on the mound on Tuesday night.
LEAN: OVER 7.5 (+100) -- Reed Wallach
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Pick
Not only have the Nationals lost all six of Patrick Corbin’s starts, but they are also 1-5 ATS in those losses. When Corbin explodes, he does so in a big way. This will be his second start of the year against the Mets after opening the season with a two-run game against them. But, the Mets got off to a slow start and look much better at the plate these days.
And while the Mets have been one of the best teams in the MLB this year, the Nationals have been one of the worst. Washington is 4-13 straight up as they enter this game series against the Mets. They are 1-5 in their last six and already lost 3-of-4 to the Amazins.
Tylor Megill got a little banged up last game, but opened the year with a scoreless five innings against the Nats lineup. He struck out six and didn’t record a walk. I think he bounces back nicely today to put the Mets out in front to start this mid-week series.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (-110) -- Matt De Saro
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Pick
All of a sudden, the Astros and Twins are among the best teams in the American League. They've both been dominant of late, with exceptional pitching staffs smothering opponents. Houston ranks third in team ERA while the Twins are fourth, and they're both in the top five with their rotation and bullpens.
Today's starting pitching matchup is a doozy too. Justin Verlander needs no introduction, as he's one of only five pitchers ever to win an MVP and multiple Cy Young awards. The 39-year-old hasn't lost a step either, tossing a quality start in four straight outings while ranking in the 91st percentile in walk rate. His command is sensational, but Minnesota ranks ninth in OPS and will be the best lineup he's faced.
Houston will be among the best lineups Joe Ryan has faced too. Of the five teams he's pitched against, only Seattle (15th) ranks outside the bottom-10 in OPS. The Astros rank 18th, so they're hardly superb, but they're certainly a step up from the Royals and Tigers.
But Houston's offense is a bit concerning. They've scored three or fewer runs in six of their last nine, and the Tigers and Mariners pitching staffs aren't as strong as Minnesota's.
I think there's great value on the Twins to pull off the upset. The pitching matchup is essentially a wash, but Minnesota's lineup is much more dangerous than the Astros'. We should see a tight contest though, so I love the under as well. It's 3-0-1 in the Twins' last four and a ridiculous 12-2 in Houston's last 14. Those trends continue today in a narrow Minnesota victory.
Pick: Twins (+120) and Under 6.5 (+105) -- Joe Summers
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.