Top NHL Picks for Today (Best Bets for Day 4 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs)
We had a very solid night with my NHL picks on Wednesday!
I went 3-1, with the OVER in the Kings/Oilers being the only one that didn't hit, missing by a single goal.
That brings my NHL Playoff record to 7-4 (+1.8 units) through the first few days, based on the odds provided by WynnBET.
Let's have another profitable night tonight! Here are my top three bets, with odds once again courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Penguins vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick
Louis Domingue was the unexpected hero of Game 1 for the Penguins. He stepped in during the second overtime period, and went on to stop 17 shots and eventually helped Pittsburgh win the triple-overtime thriller.
He's now likely to start in Game 2, with Casey DeSmith still injured and Tristan Jarry starting to ramp up action in preparation for a return. The Penguins are bigger underdogs now in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, but I actually think Domingue starting for them is a positive rather than a negative.
I have concerns with how Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers is physically feeling after facing 83 shots in Game 1. Domingue will enter the game much more fresh, there's no doubt about that.
Not only that, but the Penguins out-played the Rangers in Game 1. They had a CORSI% of 59.34%, and had an expected goals per 60 minutes of 5.09. If it wasn't for Shesterkin, the Penguins would've won handedly in regulation. Now with a tired Shesterkin, Penguins might run away with this one.
Pick: Penguins +135
Capitals vs. Panthers Prediction and Pick
The Capitals upset the Panthers in Game 1, but I'm not going to change my mind about how this series should go. The Panthers are a terrible stylistic matchup for the Capitals, and I expect a blowout in Game 2.
The Capitals were able to shut down the Panthers high-octane attack in Game 1, but much like the first game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs, Florida played about as bad as they'll play in the opening game. We'll see a much better Panthers team tonight, who will actually give Ilya Samsonov some shots to worry about.
They only tallied up eighth high danger scoring chances in the first game. I expect that number to almost double tonight.
Pick: Panthers -1.5 (+105)
Predators vs. Avalanche Prediction and Pick
I'll be honest, there's not many spots I want to bet on in this game. It's impossible to justify a bet on the Predators without Juuse Saros in net, but laying -155 juice on an Avalanche puck line doesn't seem intriguing either.
Instead, I'm going to take the UNDER 6.5 at +105 odds.
Despite the final score, the advanced analytics show that it shouldn't have been such a high-scoring affair. The Avalanche had an expected goals of 3.65, and the Predators has an expected goals of 2.06. Of course, it rarely works out where actual goals equals expected goals, but that goes to show that we may be getting some value on the UNDER.
Not only that, but with the OVER hitting at such a high-rate for both teams in recent weeks, I think the line on the total is now an overreaction to that trend. I would rarely ever want to lay -125 juice on an over that's set at 6.5 in a hockey game, so I like the under at plus-money quite a bit.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 (+105)
Stars vs. Flames Prediction and Pick
Every single indication in the first game is that this is going to be a defensive battle between these two teams. Among all opening game matchups of the playoffs, the two teams ranked in the bottom in every single statistic that would predict goals.
Their combined expected goals in Game 1 was 2.9. The Stars had only FIVE high danger scoring chances, the Flames had just FOUR.
I was on the UNDER in the first game, and I see no reason to sway from that. This is going to be a slow-moving, defensive series that probably won't be very exciting to watch if you're not a fan of either team.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-110)
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.