UFC 303: Andre Fili vs. Cub Swanson Prediction, Pick and Odds

In one of the most underrated fights of UFC 303, featherweight veterans Andre Fili and Cub Swanson will meet on the prelims of the International Fight Week card.

Fili (23-11 with one no-contest, 11-10 with one no-contest in UFC) has mostly alternated wins and losses in the UFC since debuting in 2013. Last competing at UFC Vegas 86, Fili replaced Lerone Murphy on short notice with a chance to enter the rankings against Dan Ige but was brutally knocked out in under three minutes.

Swanson (29-13, 14-9 in UFC) was once a top contender in this division but has recently settled into a role as a scrappy veteran known for his memorable performances. The 41-year-old briefly attempted an unsuccessful move to bantamweight in 2022 but returned to his natural division in late 2023 with a controversial win over Hakeem Dawodu.

While Swanson has just two additional years of UFC experience over Fili, he is eight years older than the 33-year-old Team Alpha Male product.

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Andre Fili vs. Cub Swanson odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Andre Fili -245
• Cub Swanson +200

Total Rounds:

• 2.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Andre Fili vs. Cub Swanson best bet

On paper, Swanson is technically coming off a win but anyone who watched his fight with Hakeem Dawodu at UFC Vegas 78 knows that was a horrifically scored fight. Swanson was out-landed for all three rounds of the fight as he struggled with the length and athleticism of Dawodu. While not a complete domination, the action was one-sided enough for Swanson to clap as the decision was being read, expecting a loss.

Fili, meanwhile, has played his top-20 gatekeeper role to a tee, knocking out Lucas Almeida at UFC 296 but failing to compete with the top-level talent of Dan Ige in his next outing. Following the loss, Fili is back to facing a lower-level opponent with the 41-year-old Swanson now well past his prime.

Of the 10 losses in the UFC for Fili, six are currently ranked in the top 15 with Joanderson Brito and Nathaniel Wood knocking on the door. This is a rinse and repeat for Fili, who continuously alternates fights with elite opponents and inferior talent, leading to his fluctuating record.

Fili has never been consistent in the UFC but has yet to lose two straight in his career. Following a loss, Fili is 9-0-1 all-time.

Swanson has never been the biggest featherweight but used his speed and athleticism in the past to overcome his typical lack of reach. Against Dawodu, however, those factors were evidently no longer present enough to be utilized against the upper echelon of the division.

With a three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage, Fili mimics the frame of Dawodu while posing a much bigger threat with his power. Aside from Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway still names Fili as the most powerful opponent he has ever faced.

Prediction: Fili by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Andre Fili -3.5 (-150)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.